THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.2%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.1%192 races · latest settled day: #1 4/16, top-3 9/16forensic read: #1 27.7% · top-3 63% (119)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
No confirmed early pace on the book, so this one may turn tactical. Winners here typically raced recently (48% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (68% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 2nd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 50% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, SOLDIER OF THE SEA (IRE) leads on 77, 33pts clear of HACKPEN HILL (IRE) — in form. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The market agrees — it makes SOLDIER OF THE SEA (IRE) the 39% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
SOLDIER OF THE SEA (IRE)
OR · Taylor Fisher / William Knight
MARKET 2.54 · the market rates it a 39% chance
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (77.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.58x market expectation)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
HACKPEN HILL (IRE)
OR · Kieran Shoemark / Ed Walker
MARKET backed 17.5 → 15 · the market rates it a 7% chance
44.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−Rated #3 in this field (44.0)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
GENTLE HURRICANE (IRE)
OR · Oisin Murphy / Andrew Balding
MARKET drifting 5.5 → 8.2 · the market rates it a 12% chance
—FORMLAB FIGURE · # OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−Stable in form this week — 4 wins from 13 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.35x market expectation)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1SOLDIER OF THE SEA (IRE)net +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot
2HACKPEN HILL (IRE)net +4race-fit (ran <=45d), backed since morning, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot
3GENTLE HURRICANE (IRE)net +3market top-3, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. HACKPEN HILL (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge SOLDIER OF THE SEA (IRE) lacks: backed since the morning.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (no confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
24 similar races at SALISBURY, 5.5-6.5f, 2yo non-handicaps, Class 4, Jun-Aug, 2023-2025
Winners here typically raced recently (48% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (68% from the first three favourites). 8% won last time out, 20% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Last ran
36% first run
36% 15-45d
16% 46-90d
Market
44% favourite
32% 4th+ in the market
16% 2nd favourite
LTO form
36% unplaced last time
36% first run
20% placed last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 5 runners · stalls 1–5
12345
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: SOLDIER OF THE SEA (IRE) is 1/1 on softer ground · HACKPEN HILL (IRE) is unraced on softer ground · GENTLE HURRICANE (IRE) is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
SOLDIER OF THE SEA (IRE)HELD-UP48.4%104.4a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
GENTLE HURRICANE (IRE)———-
HACKPEN HILL (IRE)——105.1-
HIGH TOWER———-
YELLOW MISSION (IRE)———-
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1SOLDIER OF THE SEA (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 3 · OR · Taylor Fisher / William Knight
MARKET 2.54 · the market rates it a 39% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 33pts clear of the next, in form; a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
77.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 1 tries · beats market expectation (3.08)
Days since last run
22
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 104.41% (strong late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
1stClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 77
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
William Knight · 555 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips13/9513.7%1.459/3129.0%1.96
At this time of year (Q3)28/20513.7%1.135/2222.7%1.56
In fields of <=7 ✦14/8416.7%1.017/2330.4%1.37
On turf ✦38/27713.7%1.2114/8416.7%1.33
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)2/825.0%1.50/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 77 at/around today's trip, clears the ~62.0 demand
The rider
Taylor Fisher · last 14 days: 4/23· at Salisbury: A/E 1.58 (n16)· with this yard: A/E 1.78 (n15)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 2
+0.89 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.2 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph1st of 1
+0.35s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 2
104.4%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 2
7.42 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Ffos Las6fGood1stTrue41.2 +0.89104.4+0.35
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-06-29 to 2026-06-29. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (77.0)Only 1 run at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.58x market expectation)
LTO comment
“dwelt, mid-division, headway when switched over 2f out, challenged approaching final 1f, stayed on to lead close home”
#2HACKPEN HILL (IRE)
DRAW 4 · OR · Kieran Shoemark / Ed Walker
MARKET backed 17.5 → 15 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
44.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 33pts off the top, fit and race-ready; the price is the only question.
FormLab Figure
44.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 44
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · finishing speed 105.1% (strong late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
8thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 44
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ed Walker · 1111 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 8-16 odds, at this time of year (Q2)
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On turf ✦89/59415.0%1.0338/21317.8%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips ✦31/22114.0%0.9210/9210.9%0.72
In fields of <=744/20421.6%1.0315/7919.0%0.8
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)5/3414.7%0.952/1020.0%1.42
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 44 is below the ~62.0 the race demands
The rider
Kieran Shoemark · last 14 days: 3/36· at Salisbury: A/E 1.1 (n38)· with this yard: A/E 1.02 (n320)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 2
+0.12 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.1 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph
—
No 0-20mph split recorded
Finish · closing speed1st of 2
105.1%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 2
7.48 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
2 Jul 26Newbury6fGd/Frm8th—40.1 +0.12105.1——
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f—very slow2f—par3f—slow4f—slow5f—slow6f—par
Timed runs 2026-07-02 to 2026-07-02. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (44.0)Only 1 run at this distance
LTO comment
“slowly away, never dangerous”
#3GENTLE HURRICANE (IRE)
DRAW 5 · OR · Oisin Murphy / Andrew Balding
MARKET drifting 5.5 → 8.2 · the market rates it a 12% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
—FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Prominent in the betting; the price is the only question.
FormLab Figure
no rating yet (no rated runs on record)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
first run on record
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · no timed finishing data
Recent form · last 0 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Andrew Balding · 2428 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, at Newcastle, jockey_named P. J. McDonald, off a steady mark, dropping in trip
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3) ✦134/74218.1%1.1115/6722.4%1.19
In Class 4-5 company ✦184/96219.1%1.0356/22524.9%1.17
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)10/5318.9%1.120/140.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? no figure on record — unproven
The rider
Oisin Murphy · last 14 days: 16/71· at Salisbury: A/E 1.35 (n71)· with this yard: A/E 1.03 (n941)
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.
Stable in form this week — 4 wins from 13 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.35x market expectation)
#4HIGH TOWER
DRAW 1 · OR · Billy Loughnane / George Boughey
MARKET backed 3.25 → 2.94 · the market rates it a 34% chance
Yard mixed · 1+ / 1−
—FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Backed since the morning; the price is the only question.
FormLab Figure
no rating yet (no rated runs on record)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
first run on record
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · no timed finishing data
Recent form · last 0 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
George Boughey · 1373 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: over 9-10f trips
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips ✦70/37918.5%1.0118/7125.4%1.28
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)65/39616.4%1.075/2917.2%0.8
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)1/166.2%0.310/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? no figure on record — unproven
The rider
Billy Loughnane · last 14 days: 13/59· at Salisbury: A/E 0.95 (n56)· with this yard: A/E 0.97 (n686)
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.
#5YELLOW MISSION (IRE)
DRAW 2 · OR · Rossa Ryan / Richard Hughes
MARKET 12.5 · the market rates it a 8% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−
—FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Little measured either way — unexposed on our reads.
FormLab Figure
no rating yet (no rated runs on record)
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
first run on record
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
— · no timed finishing data
Recent form · last 0 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard Hughes · 1053 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦26/16415.9%0.799/7212.5%0.59
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)2/1216.7%1.550/120.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? no figure on record — unproven
The rider
Rossa Ryan · last 14 days: 16/67· at Salisbury: A/E 0.96 (n100)· with this yard: A/E 1.49 (n10)
Sectional profile
No timed runs on record — this horse has no sectional history to read.