THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.2%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.1%192 races · latest settled day: #1 4/16, top-3 9/16forensic read: #1 27.7% · top-3 63% (119)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
No confirmed early pace on the book, so this one may turn tactical. Winners here typically raced recently (48% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (68% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 2nd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 50% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, TOPAZ (IRE) leads on 79, 41pts clear of HAPPY ENOUGH — fit and race-ready. The case against the top pick: a yard out of form. The market agrees — it makes TOPAZ (IRE) the 67% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 7
TOPAZ (IRE)
OR · Billy Loughnane / Jack Channon
MARKET 1.49 · the market rates it a 67% chance
79.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−Rated #2 in this field (79.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
HAPPY ENOUGH
OR · Rossa Ryan / Ralph Beckett
MARKET 9.6 · the market rates it a 10% chance
38.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #4 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−Drops in class today
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
GOLDEN CATURRA
OR · Ashley Lewis / John Gallagher
MARKET drifting 140 → 260 · the market rates it a 0% chance
—FORMLAB FIGURE · # OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−Jockey goes well at this track (1.5x market expectation)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1TOPAZ (IRE)net +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup − yard cold
2HAPPY ENOUGHnet +4drops in class, market top-3, energy in the winning band, yard hot
3LOLA DE VALENCE (IRE)net +3backed since morning, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
TOPAZ (IRE) carries a yard out of form. HAPPY ENOUGH is the one to beat it — an edge TOPAZ (IRE) lacks: dropping in class.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
SILVER SOVEREIGN FIGURE #
Clive Cox's runners on turf win 14.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (no confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
24 similar races at SALISBURY, 5.5-6.5f, 2yo non-handicaps, Class 4, Jun-Aug, 2023-2025
Winners here typically raced recently (48% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (68% from the first three favourites). 8% won last time out, 20% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Last ran
36% first run
36% 15-45d
16% 46-90d
Market
44% favourite
32% 4th+ in the market
16% 2nd favourite
LTO form
36% unplaced last time
36% first run
20% placed last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 5 runners · stalls 1–7
1234567
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: TOPAZ (IRE) is unraced on softer ground · HAPPY ENOUGH is unraced on softer ground · GOLDEN CATURRA is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
GOLDEN CATURRA———-
HAPPY ENOUGHHELD-UP50.0%100.1the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
LOLA DE VALENCE (IRE)———-
SILVER SOVEREIGN———-
TOPAZ (IRE)MID49.7%101.7the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1TOPAZ (IRE)MID
DRAW 7 · OR · Billy Loughnane / Jack Channon
MARKET 1.49 · the market rates it a 67% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
79.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Level at the head of the figures (2nd), fit and race-ready; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
79.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 81
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.74% (holds late)
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jack Channon · 751 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: over 7-8f trips, when the yard has won in the last 3 days
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 4-5 company ✦57/30019.0%1.2213/8814.8%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)31/23413.2%0.971/224.5%0.4
Over 5-6f trips38/20718.4%1.278/7311.0%0.77
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)2/1020.0%1.461/520.0%3.53
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 83 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand
The rider
Billy Loughnane · last 14 days: 13/59· at Salisbury: A/E 0.95 (n56)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 2
+0.00 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 2
+0.17s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 2
101.7%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 2
7.25 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
2 Jul 26Newbury6fGd/Frm2nd—40.6 +0.20100.8—
19 Jun 26Ascot6fGd/Frm15thTrue39.5 -0.1999.5+0.13
16 May 26Newmarket6fGood2ndTrue41.1 +0.00104.9+0.22
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.062fled3fled4fled5f+0.066f+0.16
Timed runs 2026-05-16 to 2026-07-02. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
16 May 26 · 6f · Good — finished 2nd vs 7th, 12.25L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+12.2L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Rated #2 in this field (79.0)Only 3 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“led until final ½f, one paced”
#2HAPPY ENOUGHHELD-UP
DRAW 2 · OR · Rossa Ryan / Ralph Beckett
MARKET 9.6 · the market rates it a 10% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
38.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 41pts off the top, dropping in class; the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
38.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 38
Official mark (OR)
unrated · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
66
Sectional clock
No timed runs on record
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.14% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 1 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
7thClass 2 · 6.0f · rated 38
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ralph Beckett · 1383 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 46 to 90 days19/11716.2%1.016/2524.0%1.58
At this time of year (Q3)90/46719.3%0.9816/6126.2%1.35
Over 5-6f trips29/18615.6%0.8515/6423.4%1.33
In fields of <=7 ✦84/31826.4%1.0234/11629.3%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Salisbury ✦13/6420.3%0.965/2321.7%0.82
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 40 is below the ~78.0 the race demands
The rider
Rossa Ryan · last 14 days: 16/67· at Salisbury: A/E 0.96 (n100)· with this yard: A/E 1 (n665)
Sectional profile · last 1 timed run · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 2
-0.53 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 40.5 raw · only 1 run
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 2
+0.46s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 2
100.1%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 2
7.45 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 May 26Newmarket6fGood7thTrue40.5 -0.53100.1+0.46
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace