THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.2%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.1%192 races · latest settled day: #1 4/16, top-3 9/16forensic read: #1 27.7% · top-3 63% (119)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
ALLEGRESSE is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here spend about 49% of their energy before the final two furlongs and quicken late. On the measured reads, CELEBORN leads on 95, 1pts clear of BLUE PRINCE (IRE) — backed since the morning. The case against the top pick: habitually slow from the stalls and rated well above the mark it last won from. The market sees it differently, making ARCTIC THUNDER (IRE) the 31% favourite — a horse our figures rate 3rd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
CELEBORN
OR 88 · Billy Loughnane / George Boughey
MARKET backed 4.9 → 4.3 · the market rates it a 23% chance
95.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−The top rating in this field (95.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
BLUE PRINCE (IRE)
OR 85 · Rossa Ryan / David Evans
MARKET 3.65 · the market rates it a 27% chance
94.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayRated #2 in this field (94.0)A course winner (1 from 1 here)Runs Held-Up — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
ARCTIC THUNDER (IRE)
OR 81 · Kieran Shoemark / Ed Walker
MARKET drifting 2.88 → 3.2 · the market rates it a 31% chance
83.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−4lb below his last winning mark (81 today vs 85)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayRated #3 in this field (83.0)Runs Held-Up — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1CELEBORNnet +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, proven at trip − habitually slow away, 5lb+ above last winning mark
2BLUE PRINCE (IRE)net +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup − habitually slow away, clock FADE, 5lb+ above last winning mark
3ALLEGRESSEnet +5drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), top-2 late speed today, energy in the winning band, yard hot
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
CELEBORN carries habitually slow from the stalls and rated well above the mark it last won from. BLUE PRINCE (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge CELEBORN lacks: in form.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 4 runners · stalls 1–4
1234
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: CELEBORN is 1/2 on softer ground · BLUE PRINCE (IRE) is 0/8 on softer ground · ARCTIC THUNDER (IRE) is 1/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
CELEBORNMID49.0%104.5the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
BLUE PRINCE (IRE)HELD-UP50.4%97.8held up without the late gear (4th of 4 on late speed), races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
ARCTIC THUNDER (IRE)HELD-UP50.7%98.4the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
ALLEGRESSEPROMINENT49.3%99.9the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
ALLEGRESSEPROMINENTtypically ~1.5 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.15s off the field’s best
ALLEGRESSE is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1CELEBORNMID
DRAW 4 · OR 88 · Billy Loughnane / George Boughey
MARKET backed 4.9 → 4.3 · the market rates it a 23% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
95.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 1pts clear of the next, backed since the morning; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
95.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 95
Official mark (OR)
88 · last won off 81
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 5 tries · beats market expectation (2.0)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.6s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.54% (strong late)
Headgear
First-time blinkers · yard 14% with first-time gear (A/E 0.9)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
George Boughey · 1373 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: over 9-10f trips
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Above their last winning mark41/21918.7%1.0510/6914.5%0.79
At this time of year (Q3)65/39616.4%1.075/2917.2%0.8
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)1/166.2%0.310/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 97 at/around today's trip, clears the ~92.0 demand
The rider
Billy Loughnane · last 14 days: 13/59· at Salisbury: A/E 0.95 (n56)· with this yard: A/E 0.97 (n686)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 4
+0.33 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 4
+0.40s
Slow away in 3 of 4 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed1st of 4
104.5%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 4
7.00 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
5 Jul 26Ayr8fGood5thTrue40.3 +0.09106.9+0.48
5 Jun 26Epsom Downs8fGd/Sft14thFast early39.7 -0.06103.4+0.45
15 May 26Newbury10fGood5thTrue39.8 +0.35106.3+0.14
Timed runs 2024-09-13 to 2026-07-05. · 2 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs BLUE PRINCE (IRE) (read through JIMMY SPEAKING, STERLING KNIGHT) ≈ -1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
7lb above his last winning mark (88 today vs 81)Yet to win at this level — a Class 4 winner, upped to Class 3 todayThe top rating in this field (95.0)Only 5 runs at this distanceLost roughly 2.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“dwelt, mid-field, under pressure approaching 2f out, carried left soon after, short of room over 1f out, no chance after”
#2BLUE PRINCE (IRE)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 3 · OR 85 · Rossa Ryan / David Evans
MARKET 3.65 · the market rates it a 27% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−
94.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 1pts off the top, in form; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
94.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 100
Official mark (OR)
85 · last won off 79
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 21 tries · below market expectation (0.8)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 97.79% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David Evans · 894 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 1-3 company11/1417.8%0.943/2512.0%1.57
Coming back after 15 to 45 days35/33010.6%0.989/7811.5%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)19/2069.2%0.922/267.7%0.53
Over 7-8f trips ✦26/26010.0%0.934/606.7%0.59
In fields of <=723/14316.1%1.127/6011.7%0.84
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)3/2810.7%0.953/560.0%4.24
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 100 at/around today's trip, clears the ~92.0 demand
The rider
Rossa Ryan · last 14 days: 16/67· at Salisbury: A/E 0.96 (n100)· with this yard: A/E 1.12 (n146)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 4
+0.19 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 4
+0.35s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed4th of 4
97.8%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 4
7.13 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-09-20 to 2026-07-02. · finishing speed for 3 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-16.7L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs CELEBORN (read through JIMMY SPEAKING, STERLING KNIGHT) ≈ +1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
6lb above his last winning mark (85 today vs 79)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayRated #2 in this field (94.0)Lost roughly 2.5 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 1 here)Runs Held-Up — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“steadied start, rear, shaken up over 1f out, ran on, never on terms”
#3ARCTIC THUNDER (IRE)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 1 · OR 81 · Kieran Shoemark / Ed Walker
MARKET drifting 2.88 → 3.2 · the market rates it a 31% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 3+ / 1−
83.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 12pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
83.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 96
Official mark (OR)
81 · last won off 85
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 13 tries · beats market expectation (1.11)
Days since last run
22
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · best on the clock in its race Usually races held-up closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 98.41% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ed Walker · 1111 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 8-16 odds, at this time of year (Q2)
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 1-3 company31/28710.8%1.015/10114.9%1.57
Over 7-8f trips52/41412.6%0.9827/14119.1%1.21
On turf ✦89/59415.0%1.0338/21317.8%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=744/20421.6%1.0315/7919.0%0.8
Too few runners to read reliably
Below their last winning mark (small sample)1/333.3%4.760/30.0%0.0
At Salisbury (small sample)5/3414.7%0.952/1020.0%1.42
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 96 at/around today's trip, clears the ~92.0 demand
The rider
Kieran Shoemark · last 14 days: 3/36· at Salisbury: A/E 1.1 (n38)· with this yard: A/E 1.02 (n320)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 4
-0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 4
+0.42s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed3rd of 4
98.4%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 4
7.43 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Kempton Park8fSlow8th—38.5 -0.1998.6+0.45—
5 Jun 26Epsom Downs7fGd/Sft6thFast early40.2 -0.4299.2+0.69
6 May 26Chester7fGood7thSlow early40.9 +0.29107.4+0.36
Timed runs 2025-09-20 to 2026-06-29. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
BLUE PRINCE (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 16.7L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+16.7L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb below his last winning mark (81 today vs 85)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayRated #3 in this field (83.0)Lost roughly 2.0 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“slowly away, behind, some late headway”
#4ALLEGRESSEPROMINENT
DRAW 2 · OR 88 · Oisin Murphy / Andrew Balding
MARKET 5.4 · the market rates it a 18% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−
77.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 17.7pts off the top, dropping in class; the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late.
FormLab Figure
77.3 · ranked #4 here · career best 95
Official mark (OR)
88 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 4 tries · beats market expectation (1.39)
Days since last run
31
Sectional clock
Last time: 4.3s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races prominent and weakens
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Andrew Balding · 2428 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.0 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, at Newcastle, jockey_named P. J. McDonald, off a steady mark, dropping in trip
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 7-8f trips ✦129/75417.1%1.0549/21422.9%1.26
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦199/104919.0%1.1270/28924.2%1.24
At this time of year (Q3) ✦134/74218.1%1.1115/6722.4%1.19
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)10/5318.9%1.120/140.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 97 at/around today's trip, clears the ~92.0 demand
The rider
Oisin Murphy · last 14 days: 16/71· at Salisbury: A/E 1.35 (n71)· with this yard: A/E 1.03 (n941)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 4
+0.11 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 4
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 4
99.9%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 4
7.20 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
20 Jun 26Ascot9fGd/Frm16thTrue40.0 +0.0896.2+0.22
6 Jun 26Epsom Downs10fSoft9thTrue36.3 +0.0085.8+0.35
1 May 26Goodwood8fGood4thTrue39.5 -0.43104.6+0.00
11 Oct 25Newmarket10fGd/Frm7thSlow early39.8 -0.20105.0+0.42
Timed runs 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-20. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 3 todayDrops in class todayOnly 4 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 4 wins from 13 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.35x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market