THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.2%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.1%192 races · latest settled day: #1 4/16, top-3 9/16forensic read: #1 27.7% · top-3 63% (119)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
CURRAN (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here typically raced recently (80% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (60% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 50% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, CURRAN (IRE) leads on 72.3, 2.6pts clear of FAIR DINKUM (IRE) — sharp from the stalls. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is FAIR DINKUM (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes CURRAN (IRE) the 47% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW
CURRAN (IRE)
OR 70 · Oisin Murphy / Rod Millman
MARKET 2.14 · the market rates it a 47% chance
72.3FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (72.3)Proven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 1.92)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW
FAIR DINKUM (IRE)
OR 67 · Taryn Langley / Jeremy Scott
MARKET backed 3.5 → 3.2 · the market rates it a 31% chance
69.7FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (69.7)Proven over the trip (12 tries, beats market expectation at 1.32)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW
MASTERDREAM (FR)
OR 59 · Ashley Lewis / Neil Mulholland
MARKET drifting 6.2 → 7.6 · the market rates it a 13% chance
59.3FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 1−7lb below his last winning mark (59 today vs 66)Rated #3 in this field (59.3)Jockey goes well at this track (1.5x market expectation)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1CURRAN (IRE)net +10figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band
2FAIR DINKUM (IRE)net +5figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, proven at trip − habitually slow away, 5lb+ above last winning mark
3BLUE SIAM (IRE)net +3race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields − clock FADE
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. FAIR DINKUM (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge CURRAN (IRE) lacks: backed since the morning.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
15 similar races at SALISBURY, 13.2-15.2f, all-aged handicaps, Class 4-6, all months, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (80% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (60% from the first three favourites). 20% won last time out, 33% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
33% 6yo+
33% 5yo
20% 3yo
Last ran
47% within 14d
33% 15-45d
13% 46-90d
Market
40% 4th+ in the market
40% favourite
13% 3rd favourite
LTO form
40% unplaced last time
33% placed last time
20% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: CURRAN (IRE) is 1/5 on softer ground · FAIR DINKUM (IRE) is 2/4 on softer ground · MASTERDREAM (FR) is 0/2 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
CURRAN (IRE)PROMINENT49.7%100.3the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late · sharp from the stalls
FAIR DINKUM (IRE)HELD-UP47.8%107.5the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
MASTERDREAM (FR)MID49.0%104.0a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
BLUE SIAM (IRE)MID48.7%106.1a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
CURRAN (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.4 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
CURRAN (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1CURRAN (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW · OR 70 · Oisin Murphy / Rod Millman
MARKET 2.14 · the market rates it a 47% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−
72.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 2.6pts clear of the next, sharp from the stalls; the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
72.3 · ranked #1 here · career best 84
Official mark (OR)
70 · last won off 69
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 11 tries · beats market expectation (1.92)
Days since last run
10
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.9s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent and weakens
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Rod Millman · 779 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)29/24311.9%0.997/2626.9%1.78
Coming back after 8 to 14 days14/13210.6%0.846/4015.0%1.27
In Class 4-5 company ✦40/33911.8%1.0616/10814.8%1.17
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)7/3917.9%1.624/1233.3%2.23
Over 11f+ trips (small sample)3/339.1%0.894/1233.3%1.83
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 84 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.3 demand
The rider
Oisin Murphy · last 14 days: 16/71· at Salisbury: A/E 1.35 (n71)· with this yard: A/E 1.1 (n105)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 4
-0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 4
+0.01s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 4
100.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 4
6.99 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-09-18 to 2026-07-11. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs FAIR DINKUM (IRE) (read through GOLDEN GARDEN, AUTUMN'S BREEZE, KOTARI, TARITINO) ≈ -0.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (72.3)Proven over the trip (11 tries, beats market expectation at 1.92)Jockey goes well at this track (1.35x market expectation)Race-fit — ran 10 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“mid-field, lost place long way out, headway 3f out, no further impression”
#2FAIR DINKUM (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW · OR 67 · Taryn Langley / Jeremy Scott
MARKET backed 3.5 → 3.2 · the market rates it a 31% chance
69.7FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 2.6pts off the top, backed since the morning; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
69.7 · ranked #2 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
67 · last won off 62
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 12 tries · beats market expectation (1.32)
Days since last run
37
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 0.8s Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 107.5% (strong late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces and tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jeremy Scott
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 77 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.3 demand
The rider
Taryn Langley · last 14 days: 0/9· at Salisbury: A/E 2.77 (n5)· with this yard: A/E 1.49 (n8)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 4
-0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 4
+0.32s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed1st of 4
107.5%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 4
7.10 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
14 Jun 26Salisbury12fGood4thTrue37.1 +0.11104.8+0.44
14 May 26Salisbury12fGood2ndTrue36.7 -0.0996.8+0.00
1 May 26Goodwood14fGood5thTrue38.3 -0.20107.8+0.41
Timed runs 2025-10-15 to 2026-06-14. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs BLUE SIAM (IRE) (read through MAN OF THE SEA, MIO AMICO) ≈ +4.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MASTERDREAM (FR) (read through CORSICAN CAPER, NAVID, SMITH, HEDONISTA) ≈ -2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CURRAN (IRE) (read through GOLDEN GARDEN, AUTUMN'S BREEZE, KOTARI, TARITINO) ≈ +0.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (67 today vs 62)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (69.7)Proven over the trip (12 tries, beats market expectation at 1.32)Jockey goes well at this track (2.77x market expectation)Lost roughly 2.0 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 10 here)
LTO comment
“held up, ridden under 3f out, plugged on”
#3MASTERDREAM (FR)MID
DRAW · OR 59 · Ashley Lewis / Neil Mulholland
MARKET drifting 6.2 → 7.6 · the market rates it a 13% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 1−
59.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 13pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
59.3 · ranked #3 here · career best 73
Official mark (OR)
59 · last won off 66
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
285
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.03% (strong late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces and tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 285 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Neil Mulholland · 114 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 4-5 company1/254.0%1.533/1225.0%2.8
In fields of <=72/1315.4%2.522/825.0%2.1
Over 11f+ trips4/3710.8%1.353/1323.1%1.58
On turf4/458.9%1.553/1816.7%1.4
At this time of year (Q3)1/175.9%1.191/425.0%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Below their last winning mark—0/40.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
At Salisbury (small sample)0/30.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Coming back after 180 days+ (small sample)1/1010.0%3.141/333.3%1.52
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 73 at/around today's trip, clears the ~70.3 demand
The rider
Ashley Lewis · last 14 days: 7/27· at Salisbury: A/E 1.5 (n10)· with this yard: A/E 1.43 (n2)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 4
-0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 4
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 4
104.0%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 4
6.96 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
9 Oct 25Bath17fGood9th—36.7 -0.37104.2+0.00
22 Aug 25Ffos Las16fGd/Frm3rdTrue38.8 -0.02106.2+0.00
Timed runs 2024-07-17 to 2025-10-09 · last timed run 285 days ago — the profile is out of date. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs BLUE SIAM (IRE) (read through ASSURED, ZOOKS, V POWER) ≈ -3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs FAIR DINKUM (IRE) (read through CORSICAN CAPER, NAVID, SMITH, HEDONISTA) ≈ +2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
7lb below his last winning mark (59 today vs 66)Yet to win at this level — a Class 6 winner, upped to Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (59.3)Only 4 runs at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.5x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionReturns from 285 days offHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“tracked pace, shaken up 3f out, not quicken, faded approaching final 1f”
#4BLUE SIAM (IRE)MID
DRAW · OR 51 · Callum Hutchinson / Syd Hosie
MARKET drifting 10 → 11 · the market rates it a 9% chance
52.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 20pts off the top, in form; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
52.3 · ranked #4 here · career best 58
Official mark (OR)
51 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 5 tries
Days since last run
6
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s) Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 106.06% (strong late)
Headgear
First-time visor
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Syd Hosie
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 58 is below the ~70.3 the race demands
The rider
Callum Hutchinson · last 14 days: 5/21· at Salisbury: A/E 1.17 (n25)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 4
+0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 4
+0.17s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 4
106.1%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 4
6.86 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
15 Jul 26Bath14fFirm3rdTrue37.6 +0.21104.1—
13 Mar 26Southwell14fStd6thSlow early39.2 -0.28114.6-0.03
7 Feb 26Southwell14fStd2ndTrue36.5 -0.13102.7-0.01
19 Jan 26Wolverhampton12fStd4thTrue36.5 +0.41103.8+0.22
12 Jan 26Wolverhampton13fStd5thTrue36.5 -0.29106.3+0.50
19 Dec 25Southwell14fStd6thTrue37.4 +0.30104.8+0.16
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-12-19 to 2026-07-15. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs FAIR DINKUM (IRE) (read through MAN OF THE SEA, MIO AMICO) ≈ -4.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MASTERDREAM (FR) (read through ASSURED, ZOOKS, V POWER) ≈ +3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Only 5 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 6 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“rear, ridden and headway over 1f out, not sustain effort”