THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.2%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.1%192 races · latest settled day: #1 4/16, top-3 9/16forensic read: #1 27.7% · top-3 63% (119)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
HILL STATION (FR) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here typically raced recently (88% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (71% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4.5 at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 48% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, BEAUNE (IRE) leads on 66, 6pts clear of THREE YORKSHIREMEN (IRE) and ZARAQUELLE (FR) (both 60) — among the two fastest on speed against its past fields. The case against the top pick: habitually slow from the stalls and the clock has it fading late. The shape danger is SHOPAHOLIC — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making INTO COMBAT the 27% favourite — a horse our figures rate 5th.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
BEAUNE (IRE)
OR 58 · Miss Jessica Llewellyn / Bernard Llewellyn & Robert Williams
MARKET 6 · the market rates it a 17% chance
66.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
AW-PROVEN — 3/11 on the all-weatherProven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (66.0)Historically underestimated by the market
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 7
THREE YORKSHIREMEN (IRE)
OR 58 · Miss Mell Boucher / Jack Jones
MARKET 5.5 · the market rates it a 18% chance
60.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−AW-PROVEN — 3/20 on the all-weatherProven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (60.0)Historically underestimated by the market
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
ZARAQUELLE (FR)
OR 56 · Miss Ruby Criscuolo / James Owen
MARKET drifting 5.6 → 7.8 · the market rates it a 13% chance
60.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−Rated #3 in this field (60.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRuns Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1BEAUNE (IRE)net +4figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, proven on the going − habitually slow away, clock FADE
2THREE YORKSHIREMEN (IRE)net +4figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, energy in the winning band, proven on the going − yard cold
3SHOPAHOLICnet +4drops in class, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band − yard cold
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
BEAUNE (IRE) carries habitually slow from the stalls and the clock has it fading late. THREE YORKSHIREMEN (IRE) sits closest on the counted reads (net +4).
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
17 similar races at WOLVERHAMPTON, 13.5-14.5f, all-aged handicaps, Class 5-7, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (88% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (71% from the first three favourites). 29% won last time out, 29% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
41% 6yo+
24% 3yo
18% 5yo
Last ran
53% 15-45d
35% within 14d
6% 91d+
Market
35% favourite
29% 4th+ in the market
24% 2nd favourite
LTO form
41% unplaced last time
29% won last time
29% placed last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 11 runners · stalls 1–11
1234567891011
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn LOW (early types average stall 4.0 of 11, field average 6.0).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
DAARIS (IRE)MID49.0%104.6a genuine turn of foot — 8th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
SHOPAHOLICMID47.8%107.8the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
INTO COMBATMID50.1%100.7solid late gains (10th of 11 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
HILL STATION (FR)PROMINENT49.1%105.5the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — and finds plenty late · sharp from the stalls
THREE YORKSHIREMEN (IRE)MID48.0%105.2a genuine turn of foot — 6th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
BEAUNE (IRE)MID48.0%104.8a genuine turn of foot — 7th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
ONE MILLION DREAMS (FR)MID50.4%103.5a genuine turn of foot — 9th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
ZARAQUELLE (FR)MID50.2%99.9one-paced late — 11th of 11 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
FIGHTING POET (IRE)HELD-UP50.3%105.8a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
THE PUG (IRE)HELD-UP46.5%107.0a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
FREEWHEELINHELD-UP48.2%106.0a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
HILL STATION (FR)PROMINENTtypically ~1.6 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
HILL STATION (FR) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1BEAUNE (IRE)MID
DRAW 1 · OR 58 · Miss Jessica Llewellyn / Bernard Llewellyn & Robert Williams
MARKET 6 · the market rates it a 17% chance
66.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 6pts clear of the next, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
66.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 66
Official mark (OR)
58 · last won off 56
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
22
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.83% (strong late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 22 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
The rider
Miss Jessica Llewellyn · at Wolverhampton: A/E 0 (n7)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 11
+0.56 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 37.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 11
+0.43s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed7th of 11
104.8%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length8th of 11
7.00 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Ffos Las11fGood4thTrue38.0 +0.43107.7+0.40
29 May 26Wolverhampton12fStd7th—37.1 -0.00101.8+0.14
Timed runs 2026-03-14 to 2026-06-29. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs FREEWHEELIN (read through GREEN TEAM, SISTERANDBROTHER, ARTH'S GOLD) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs THE PUG (IRE) (read through GLITTER CODE, YURINOV, VERSATILE, WAVE ROCK) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs THREE YORKSHIREMEN (IRE) (read through KNIGHT OF MAGIC, RUBELLITE, TIGER BEETLE, I'D GO MANIAC) ≈ +1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs DAARIS (IRE) (read through GREEN TEAM, MOON OVER THE SEA, MARY ROSE, GLITTER CODE) ≈ +1.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
AW-PROVEN — 3/11 on the all-weatherProven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (66.0)Improving fast — last run rated 66, 9pts above his recent average of 56.7Lost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (2 from 5 here)Runs Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, ridden wide over 2f out, hung left 1f out, not sustain effort”
#2THREE YORKSHIREMEN (IRE)MID
DRAW 7 · OR 58 · Miss Mell Boucher / Jack Jones
MARKET 5.5 · the market rates it a 18% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
60.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 6pts off the top, proven on the ground; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
60.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 78
Official mark (OR)
58 · last won off 55
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
41
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.4s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 105.24% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jack Jones · 577 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: off marks in the 61 to 75 range, as an exposed handicapper
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On the all-weather26/24510.6%0.8412/6618.2%1.31
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Above their last winning mark6/758.0%0.532/306.7%0.53
Over 11f+ trips7/5911.9%0.751/147.1%0.56
At this time of year (Q3)10/1506.7%0.681/175.9%0.57
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦20/2338.6%0.764/626.5%0.58
At Wolverhampton6/718.5%0.63/2015.0%0.84
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 78 at/around today's trip, clears the ~60.0 demand
The rider
Miss Mell Boucher · at Wolverhampton: A/E 0 (n1)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields8th of 11
-0.34 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 37.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 11
+0.14s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 11
105.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length1st of 11
7.20 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Jun 26Kempton Park10fSlow5thTrue37.6 +0.52103.5+0.13
31 Mar 26Wolverhampton13fStd9thTrue37.2 -1.37107.9+0.31
4 Mar 26Kempton Park10fSlow9thTrue39.5 -0.41108.0+0.00
23 Jan 26Wolverhampton9fStd8thTrue37.5 -0.03105.7+0.13
20 Dec 25Wolverhampton12fSlow7thTrue37.2 +0.0599.5+0.23
6 Dec 25Wolverhampton12fSlow6thTrue38.1 -0.79107.0+0.07
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-12-06 to 2026-06-10. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs FREEWHEELIN (read through ST JUST IN TIME, BILLY BATHGATE, ALEX THE GREAT) ≈ +2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs HILL STATION (FR) (read through BILLY BATHGATE, APPIER) ≈ -2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs DAARIS (IRE) (read through BILLY BATHGATE, TUBA, V POWER, ENTHUSED) ≈ +1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs BEAUNE (IRE) (read through KNIGHT OF MAGIC, RUBELLITE, TIGER BEETLE, I'D GO MANIAC) ≈ -1.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
AW-PROVEN — 3/20 on the all-weather3lb above his last winning mark (58 today vs 55)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (60.0)Only 1 run at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 8 here)Runs Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, headway 2f out, no extra final ½f”
#3ZARAQUELLE (FR)MIDFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 5 · OR 56 · Miss Ruby Criscuolo / James Owen
MARKET drifting 5.6 → 7.8 · the market rates it a 13% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
60.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 6pts off the top, in form; its figure was earned on a different surface.
FormLab Figure
60.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 63
Official mark (OR)
56 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
13
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Owen · 1540 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: at 4-8 odds, without a recent yard winner, on Good to Firm ground
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Wolverhampton ✦28/16017.5%1.0714/6521.5%1.25
Coming back after 8 to 14 days ✦38/25714.8%1.0724/11920.2%1.19
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 63 at/around today's trip, clears the ~60.0 demand
The rider
Miss Ruby Criscuolo · at Wolverhampton: A/E 0 (n1)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 11
-0.13 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 11
+0.33s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed11th of 11
99.9%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 11
7.06 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2024-09-28 to 2026-07-08. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs ONE MILLION DREAMS (FR) (read through MAGIC RUNNER, BOUBOULE) ≈ -3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs THREE YORKSHIREMEN (IRE) (read through MAGIC RUNNER, TAKE THE BOAT) ≈ -0.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs BEAUNE (IRE) (read through DIVOT, CAPTAIN CESS) ≈ +0.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Figure OFF-CONTEXT (10f→13f) — earned under different conditionsRated #3 in this field (60.0)Lost roughly 2.7 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“dwelt, held up, ridden and headway 2f out, kept on”
#4ONE MILLION DREAMS (FR)MID
DRAW 11 · OR 57 · Miss Brodie Hampson / Archie Watson
MARKET drifting 14.5 → 22 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−
58.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 8pts off the top, fit and race-ready; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
58.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 71
Official mark (OR)
57 · last won off 62
Record at today's distance
1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (2.97)
Days since last run
26
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.0s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.55% (strong late)
Headgear
First-time blinkers · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.66)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Archie Watson · 1278 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: in fields of <=7
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 6-7 company22/18611.8%0.937/4914.3%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)35/30011.7%0.960/250.0%0.0
In fields of 8-11 ✦55/51710.6%0.986/1165.2%0.49
At Wolverhampton20/13514.8%0.963/2810.7%0.69
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦44/4849.1%0.7911/1368.1%0.7
Too few runners to read reliably
Below their last winning mark (small sample)8/2630.8%3.060/170.0%0.0
Over 11f+ trips (small sample)14/12111.6%1.041/147.1%0.69
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 72 at/around today's trip, clears the ~60.0 demand
The rider
Miss Brodie Hampson · last 14 days: 0/2· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.44 (n16)· with this yard: A/E 0.9 (n125)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 11
-0.20 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 11
+0.20s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 11
103.5%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 11
7.20 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
25 Jun 26Hamilton Park13fGd/Frm6thTrue38.8 -0.48100.3-0.07
18 Jun 26Ripon12fGood9thTrue37.6 -0.03100.2—
23 May 26Salisbury12fGood9th—37.1 -0.03101.4+0.67
15 May 26Newbury12fGood10thFast early38.0 -0.4295.2+0.38
Timed runs 2025-09-13 to 2026-06-25. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
16 Jun 25 · 10f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 8th, 5.75L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 1 rival(s) met (+0.9L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs ZARAQUELLE (FR) (read through MAGIC RUNNER, BOUBOULE) ≈ +3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs DAARIS (IRE) (read through ALNAYEF, SNEAKY BLINDER, CLOUDSIDE ROCK, KHANGAI) ≈ -2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs THE PUG (IRE) (read through LATIN, YURINOV, KITSUNE POWER, MARINAKIS) ≈ +1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs THREE YORKSHIREMEN (IRE) (read through MAGIC RUNNER, PERSHALLA, TYPHOON DANCER, SEA OF CHARM) ≈ +1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb below his last winning mark (57 today vs 62)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayImproving fast — last run rated 58, 8pts above his recent average of 49.7Only 3 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“chased leaders, weakened over 1f out”
#5INTO COMBATMID
DRAW 3 · OR 59 · Mr Eireann Cagney / Sir Mark Prescott Bt
MARKET 3.7 · the market rates it a 27% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−
56.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 10pts off the top, a yard in form; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
56.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 60 · earned over 10.2/8.0/8.3f — never rated near today's distance (untested here)
Official mark (OR)
59 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.0s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield and fades · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.74% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Sir Mark Prescott Bt · 534 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 6-7 company18/6030.0%1.085/1338.5%1.48
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Wolverhampton9/4520.0%1.131/147.1%0.53
Coming back after 15 to 45 days36/16921.3%1.154/3411.8%0.67
In fields of 8-1134/19717.3%1.075/549.3%0.69
Over 11f+ trips49/15831.0%1.078/3721.6%0.8
On the all-weather33/21615.3%1.028/6412.5%0.83
Can it do what today needs? Unproven at this trip — its 62 was earned OFF-TRIP and it has NEVER been rated at today's distance; no evidence it can hit the ~60.0 demand here
The rider
Mr Eireann Cagney · last 14 days: 0/1· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.66 (n12)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 11
-0.33 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 11
+0.29s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed10th of 11
100.7%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 11
7.03 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
28 Aug 25Chelmsford City8fSlow7thTrue39.0 -0.02103.8+0.17
17 Aug 24Newbury7fGd/Frm8thTrue39.4 -0.2899.8—
Timed runs 2024-08-17 to 2026-07-04. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rating earned over 10.2/8.0/8.3f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested at this distance)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, weakened 2f out”
#6SHOPAHOLICMID
DRAW 6 · OR 60 · Mr Lucas Murphy / Jack Jones
MARKET backed 22 → 15.5 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
54.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 11.7pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
54.3 · ranked #6 here · career best 63 · earned over 10.0/10.2/10.0f — never rated near today's distance (untested here)
Official mark (OR)
60 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
47
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.4s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield and fades
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 107.75% (strong late)
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jack Jones · 577 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: off marks in the 61 to 75 range, as an exposed handicapper
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On the all-weather26/24510.6%0.8412/6618.2%1.31
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 11f+ trips7/5911.9%0.751/147.1%0.56
At this time of year (Q3)10/1506.7%0.681/175.9%0.57
At Wolverhampton6/718.5%0.63/2015.0%0.84
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)1/205.0%0.531/616.7%1.7
Can it do what today needs? Unproven at this trip — its 63 was earned OFF-TRIP and it has NEVER been rated at today's distance; no evidence it can hit the ~60.0 demand here
The rider
Mr Lucas Murphy · at Wolverhampton: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields9th of 11
-0.36 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 11
+0.03s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 11
107.8%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 11
7.07 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
4 Jun 26Lingfield10fStd9thTrue38.7 +0.00108.4+0.00
19 May 26Nottingham10fGd/Sft7thSlow early37.1 -0.71105.3+0.04
Timed runs 2026-04-28 to 2026-06-04. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Drops in class todayRating earned over 10.0/10.2/10.0f, not today's distance — never rated near today's trip (untested at this distance)Runs Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, pushed along 3f out, left behind 2f out”
#7THE PUG (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 10 · OR 46 · Miss Jemima Stewart / Olly Murphy
MARKET backed 18 → 15.5 · the market rates it a 6% chance
53.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 13pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
53.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 68
Official mark (OR)
46 · last won off 57
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
25
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 3.3s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races held-up closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 107.05% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 22 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Olly Murphy
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 68 at/around today's trip, clears the ~60.0 demand
The rider
Miss Jemima Stewart · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields11th of 11
-0.69 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 37.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 11
+0.11s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 11
107.0%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length11th of 11
6.64 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
26 Jun 26Newcastle10fSlow—True35.5 -3.31110.3+0.08—
15 Jun 26Chepstow10fGood3rdTrue40.5 +0.74114.5+0.21
11 May 26Catterick Bridge12fGood12thTrue37.5 -0.66100.6+0.07
31 Mar 26Wolverhampton9fStd9thTrue38.4 -0.16107.1+0.25
11 Mar 26Newcastle10fStd4thTrue39.0 +0.00112.1+0.05
9 Feb 26Wolverhampton12fStd7thTrue35.6 -0.7897.6+0.00
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f—2f—3f—4f—5f—6f—7f—1m—1m 1f—1m 2f—
Timed runs 2026-02-09 to 2026-06-26. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
19 May 25 · 10f · Gd/Frm — finished 2nd vs 7th, 17.75L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+13.8L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs DAARIS (IRE) (read through LEDNIKOV, GLITTER CODE, SPECTACULAR STYLE, PRINCE HECTOR) ≈ -4.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs BEAUNE (IRE) (read through GLITTER CODE, YURINOV, VERSATILE, WAVE ROCK) ≈ -2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs ONE MILLION DREAMS (FR) (read through LATIN, YURINOV, KITSUNE POWER, MARINAKIS) ≈ -1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs FREEWHEELIN (read through HE'S OUR CRACKER, TOBY TOPS) ≈ +1.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
11lb below his last winning mark (46 today vs 57)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayImproving fast — last run rated 53, 20pts above his recent average of 32.3Only 1 run at this distanceMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, hampered and unseated after 1f”
#8DAARIS (IRE)MID
DRAW 2 · OR 60 · Mr Lewis Kent / Kevin & Lauren Frost
MARKET backed 17 → 15.5 · the market rates it a 6% chance
52.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 13.7pts off the top, backed since the morning; a genuine turn of foot — 8th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
52.3 · ranked #8 here · career best 70
Official mark (OR)
60 · last won off 60
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 17 tries · below market expectation (0.93)
Days since last run
71
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.7s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.61% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Kevin & Lauren Frost
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 70 at/around today's trip, clears the ~60.0 demand
The rider
Mr Lewis Kent · at Wolverhampton: A/E 0 (n7)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 11
-0.25 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 36.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 11
+0.07s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 11
104.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 11
7.14 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 May 26Wolverhampton13fStd9thTrue36.0 -1.45100.8+0.01
27 Jan 26Wolverhampton13fStd6thTrue37.0 -0.45107.2+0.00
3 Jan 26Southwell16fStd6thTrue36.5 +0.16100.2+0.03
27 Dec 25Wolverhampton13fSlow1st—37.8 +0.13102.4+0.23—
11 Dec 25Chelmsford City14fSlow3rd—36.9 +0.00105.7+0.16—
26 Nov 25Southwell16fStd4thSlow early37.0 +0.10111.5-0.03
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-11-26 to 2026-05-11. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs FREEWHEELIN (read through GREEN TEAM, BLACK SMOKE, BILLY BATHGATE, LUMBERJACK) ≈ +4.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs THE PUG (IRE) (read through LEDNIKOV, GLITTER CODE, SPECTACULAR STYLE, PRINCE HECTOR) ≈ +4.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs HILL STATION (FR) (read through BILLY BATHGATE, PRINCE QUATTRO, CAPTAIN ROBERT, FASCINATING SHADOW) ≈ +3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs ONE MILLION DREAMS (FR) (read through ALNAYEF, SNEAKY BLINDER, CLOUDSIDE ROCK, KHANGAI) ≈ +2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (2 from 10 here)Runs Mid — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-division, stayed prominent long way out, hung right home turn, weakened”
#9HILL STATION (FR)PROMINENT
DRAW 4 · OR 59 · Miss Jodie Wingrove / Damien Wingrove
MARKET drifting 95 → 170 · the market rates it a 1% chance
52.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 13.7pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
52.3 · ranked #9 here · career best 75
Official mark (OR)
59 · last won off 65
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
168
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.2s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 105.55% (strong late)
Headgear
Tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 168 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Damien Wingrove
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 75 at/around today's trip, clears the ~60.0 demand
The rider
Miss Jodie Wingrove · at Wolverhampton: A/E 0 (n5)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n12)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 11
-0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 11
+0.00s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 6
Finish · closing speed5th of 11
105.5%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length7th of 11
7.03 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
3 Feb 26Wolverhampton13fStd8thTrue37.1 +0.0099.7+0.03
6 Jan 26Wolverhampton16fSlow5thTrue37.9 -0.04111.1+0.00
24 Jan 25Southwell14fStd7thTrue36.0 -1.1199.9-0.02
7 Jan 25Wolverhampton13fSlow4thTrue38.4 +0.52109.7+0.11
4 Dec 24Lingfield12fStandard7thTrue38.8 -0.2698.4+0.00
21 Nov 24Lingfield12fStandard4thTrue40.5 +0.31114.3-0.11
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2024-11-21 to 2026-02-03 · last timed run 168 days ago — the profile is out of date. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs DAARIS (IRE) (read through BILLY BATHGATE, PRINCE QUATTRO, CAPTAIN ROBERT, FASCINATING SHADOW) ≈ -3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs THREE YORKSHIREMEN (IRE) (read through BILLY BATHGATE, APPIER) ≈ +2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
6lb below his last winning mark (59 today vs 65)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayOnly 4 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 6 here)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, pushed along 4f out, weakened 2f out”
#10FIGHTING POET (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 9 · OR 46 · Miss Delphi Parkinson / Richard Phillips
MARKET drifting 85 → 170 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 8−
35FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 31pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
35 · ranked #10 here · career best 60 · earned over 11.9/9.9/10.0f — but has run to 56 at today's distance, proven here (rating understates him)
Official mark (OR)
46 · last won off 49
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
29
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.0s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 105.85% (strong late)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard Phillips · 68 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 9.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In Class 6-7 company3/339.1%1.380/170.0%0.0
At Wolverhampton0/90.0%0.00/80.0%0.0
Over 11f+ trips1/244.2%0.670/60.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days0/160.0%0.00/150.0%0.0
Below their last winning mark1/250.0%5.760/50.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)3/1421.4%2.280/50.0%0.0
On the all-weather0/180.0%0.00/190.0%0.0
In fields of 8-112/267.7%1.210/140.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Figure may flatter — career best 60 was earned off-trip; at today's distance its best is only 56, SHORT of the ~60.0 demand (must better its trip record)
The rider
Miss Delphi Parkinson · with this yard: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 11
+0.35 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 11
+0.37s
Slow away in 3 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed4th of 11
105.8%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length9th of 11
6.96 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
1 Jul 26Epsom Downs12fGood (Good To Firm In Places)8th—38.5 -0.38106.5+0.45—
22 Jun 26Brighton11fGd/Frm6thSlow early43.4 +0.31106.8—
9 Jun 26Brighton9fGood13thTrue42.6 +1.03102.5+0.51
7 May 26Windsor10fGd/Frm4thTrue38.4 +0.11106.5+0.14
27 Oct 25Lingfield10fStd9thTrue39.0 -0.03109.5+0.48
16 Oct 25Brighton9fGd/Frm9thSlow early42.6 +1.05103.2+0.29
Timed runs 2025-10-16 to 2026-07-01. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
THE PUG (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 13.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
19 May 25 · 10f · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 2nd, 17.75L behind
ONE MILLION DREAMS (FR) · 1 meeting≈ 0.9L behind on today's terms · reverses
16 Jun 25 · 10f · Gd/Frm — finished 8th vs 4th, 5.75L behind
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-7.3L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs DAARIS (IRE) (read through PRINCE HECTOR, CERTAIN STYLE, THRONE HALL) ≈ +0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs THREE YORKSHIREMEN (IRE) (read through SIR LAURENCE GRAFF, PRINCE HECTOR, VOIX DE BOCELLI, HUNTLY LODGE) ≈ -0.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs BEAUNE (IRE) (read through REGAL GLORY, CHARLES MORIN, BOHEMIAN BREEZE, MREMBO) ≈ -0.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb below his last winning mark (46 today vs 49)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRating earned over 11.9/9.9/10.0f, but he has run to 56 at today's distance — proven at this trip (his rating understates him here)Only 2 runs at this distanceLost roughly 2.0 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“always behind”
#11FREEWHEELINHELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 8 · OR 46 · Miss Lauren Sanders / John Norton
MARKET drifting 300 → 580 · the market rates it a 0% chance
23.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
11th on the figures, 42.7pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
23.3 · ranked #11 here · career best 54
Official mark (OR)
46 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 5 tries
Days since last run
61
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.6s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races held-up (one-paced)
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 106.04% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John Norton
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 54 is below the ~60.0 the race demands
The rider
Miss Lauren Sanders · at Wolverhampton: A/E 0 (n1)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n2)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields10th of 11
-0.68 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 36.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph11th of 11
+0.46s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 11
106.0%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length10th of 11
6.70 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
21 May 26Southwell11fStd8th—37.2 -1.89110.5+1.46
26 Jun 25Hamilton Park13fGd/Frm7thTrue37.3 -0.4993.9+0.24
21 Mar 25Southwell16fStd10thSlow early—111.8—
7 Mar 25Newcastle16fSlow4thTrue36.9 +0.04104.8+0.21
18 Jan 25Wolverhampton16fSlow11thSlow early37.9 -0.88112.4+0.18
Timed runs 2024-07-29 to 2026-05-21. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs BEAUNE (IRE) (read through GREEN TEAM, SISTERANDBROTHER, ARTH'S GOLD) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs DAARIS (IRE) (read through GREEN TEAM, BLACK SMOKE, BILLY BATHGATE, LUMBERJACK) ≈ -4.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs THREE YORKSHIREMEN (IRE) (read through ST JUST IN TIME, BILLY BATHGATE, ALEX THE GREAT) ≈ -2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs THE PUG (IRE) (read through HE'S OUR CRACKER, TOBY TOPS) ≈ -1.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Drops in class todayOnly 5 runs at this distanceLost roughly 6.6 lengths at the start last timeCut 5lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“very slowly away, rear, left behind again 2f out”