THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.2%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.1%192 races · latest settled day: #1 4/16, top-3 9/16forensic read: #1 27.7% · top-3 63% (119)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (72% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (52% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 48% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, KAARANAH (IRE) leads on 79, 3pts clear of PULSAR STAR — one of the two strongest finishers here. The case against the top pick: behind the rivals it has met on collateral form. The shape danger is DISTINCTION (IRE) — a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making NO KNEE NEVER (IRE) the 16% favourite — a horse our figures rate 3rd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 13
KAARANAH (IRE)
OR 70 · Jack Callan / John Butler
MARKET 9 · the market rates it a 11% chance
79.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−AW-PROVEN — 3/17 on the all-weatherThe top rating in this field (79.0)A course winner (3 from 7 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
PULSAR STAR
OR 70 · Robert Havlin / Thomas Faulkner
MARKET 8.6 · the market rates it a 12% chance
76.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 2−Rated #2 in this field (76.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 4
NO KNEE NEVER (IRE)
OR 69 · Pierre-Louis Jamin / James Owen
MARKET 6.4 · the market rates it a 16% chance
75.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−AW-PROVEN — 4/16 on the all-weatherRated #3 in this field (75.0)Race-fit — ran 3 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1KAARANAH (IRE)net +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 late speed today, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, proven on the going, yard positive in today’s setup − behind rivals met on collateral form
2AMERICAN STATE (IRE)net +6race-fit (ran <=45d), energy in the winning band, proven at trip, proven on the going, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot
3DARK ROSA (IRE)net +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, runs the dominant winning style here, FormLab watch flag
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
KAARANAH (IRE) carries behind the rivals it has met on collateral form. AMERICAN STATE (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge KAARANAH (IRE) lacks: a yard in form.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
DISTINCTION (IRE) FIGURE #9
John Mackie's runners on the all-weather win 15.5% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
25 similar races at WOLVERHAMPTON, 9.0-10.0f, all-aged handicaps, Class 4-6, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (72% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (52% from the first three favourites). 16% won last time out, 16% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
48% 4yo
20% 6yo+
20% 5yo
Last ran
60% 15-45d
16% 91d+
12% within 14d
Market
48% 4th+ in the market
20% 2nd favourite
20% favourite
LTO form
64% unplaced last time
16% won last time
16% placed last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 13 runners · stalls 1–13
12345678910111213
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–13).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
PULSAR STARMID49.5%101.4solid late gains (8th of 13 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
KAARANAH (IRE)MID47.6%105.8the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
AMERICAN STATE (IRE)MID48.8%104.0a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
NO KNEE NEVER (IRE)PROMINENT50.4%101.0a match for the quickest early, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late
CALEDONIANHELD-UP50.3%102.8solid late gains (4th of 13 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
SYMPHONY OF JOY (IRE)HELD-UP49.7%100.7solid late gains (10th of 13 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
EAGLE DAY (IRE)MID50.0%102.7solid late gains (5th of 13 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
DARK ROSA (IRE)MID50.9%100.3one-paced late — 11th of 13 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
IMOLA (IRE)MID48.4%102.6solid late gains (6th of 13 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
LOOK BACK SMILING (IRE)HELD-UP51.1%98.0held up without the late gear (12th of 13 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
BELLASIO (IRE)PROMINENT51.3%97.7the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
DISTINCTION (IRE)MID49.3%105.1a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
CONCERT BOY (IRE)HELD-UP49.4%101.5solid late gains (7th of 13 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
BELLASIO (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~2.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
NO KNEE NEVER (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.8 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.22s off the best)
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1KAARANAH (IRE)MID
DRAW 13 · OR 70 · Jack Callan / John Butler
MARKET 9 · the market rates it a 11% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−
79.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 3pts clear of the next, one of the two strongest finishers here; behind the rivals it has met on collateral form.
FormLab Figure
79.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 79
Official mark (OR)
70 · last won off 67
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 21 tries · in line with the market (0.98)
Days since last run
35
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 0.8s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 105.81% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John Butler · 887 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.1 on the exchange
Signature angle: dropping in class, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Wolverhampton11/1477.5%0.837/2725.9%1.89
Over 9-10f trips10/1208.3%0.910/3925.6%1.79
On the all-weather45/5078.9%0.9329/12124.0%1.57
In Class 4-5 company18/3355.4%0.7726/12121.5%1.48
Coming back after 15 to 45 days24/3427.0%0.7722/11419.3%1.33
Above their last winning mark14/10813.0%0.9415/7619.7%1.27
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)17/1829.3%1.037/1546.7%2.18
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 79 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
Jack Callan · last 14 days: 3/26· at Wolverhampton: A/E 1.18 (n54)· with this yard: A/E 1.67 (n23)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 13
+0.27 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 13
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 13
105.8%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 13
7.30 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
16 Jun 26Wolverhampton9fStd1stTrue39.2 +0.24105.9+0.33
6 Jun 26Lingfield10fSoft5thFast early36.4 -0.12101.0+0.05
20 May 26Kempton Park8fSlow6thTrue38.5 -0.11104.3+0.22
Timed runs 2026-02-17 to 2026-06-16. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
EAGLE DAY (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 3.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
16 Jun 26 · 9.5f · Std — finished 1st vs 4th, 2.95L ahead
NO KNEE NEVER (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 6.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
31 Jan 26 · 8f · Std/Slow — finished 11th vs 6th, 3.35L behind
AMERICAN STATE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 7.4L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
17 Feb 26 · 8.6f · Std — finished 6th vs 1st, 2.3L behind
vs CONCERT BOY (IRE) (read through PITNEY, BOOK OF LIFE, MR NUGGET, STARLINER) ≈ -5.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs LOOK BACK SMILING (IRE) (read through BOOK OF LIFE, SOMKIYR, DEVIOUS DEVAN, UNION ISLAND) ≈ -5.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs DARK ROSA (IRE) (read through CLOCH NUA, PITNEY, SANT ALESSIO, BERRY CLEVER) ≈ -5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs PULSAR STAR (read through INFLUENTIAL, KOKANEE, BERRY CLEVER) ≈ -4.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
AW-PROVEN — 3/17 on the all-weather3lb above his last winning mark (70 today vs 67)The top rating in this field (79.0)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (3 from 7 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“went right start, mid-division, pushed along over 2f out, headway over 1f out, led final 100 yds, well on top”
#2PULSAR STARMID
DRAW 2 · OR 70 · Robert Havlin / Thomas Faulkner
MARKET 8.6 · the market rates it a 12% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 2−
76.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 3pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; solid late gains (8th of 13 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
76.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 80
Official mark (OR)
70 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
22
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.3s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.38% (holds late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Thomas Faulkner · 249 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)1/512.0%0.293/650.0%2.72
At Wolverhampton10/6914.5%1.577/4615.2%1.57
On the all-weather ✦12/11110.8%1.279/6613.6%1.32
In fields of 12-154/3411.8%1.761/616.7%1.31
Coming back after 15 to 45 days5/657.7%0.956/4214.3%1.28
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 9-10f trips6/2623.1%2.371/195.3%0.55
In Class 4-5 company5/618.2%1.02/316.5%0.58
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 81 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
Robert Havlin · last 14 days: 4/19· at Wolverhampton: A/E 1.1 (n172)· with this yard: A/E 1.04 (n74)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields9th of 13
-0.00 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 13
+0.06s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 13
101.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 13
7.37 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Ffos Las8fGood6thFast early39.2 -0.2598.0-0.10
14 Jun 26Doncaster7fGood6thSlow early41.2 -0.26106.7+0.21
Timed runs 2025-12-28 to 2026-06-29. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
SYMPHONY OF JOY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L ahead on today's terms · confirms
14 Oct 25 · 7f · Gd/Sft — finished 2nd vs 4th, 0.8L ahead
EAGLE DAY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 14.4L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
18 Apr 26 · 8.3f · Good — finished 2nd vs 8th, 12.65L ahead
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+8.6L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs NO KNEE NEVER (IRE) (read through PORT LOUIS, BELLA BISBEE, MOONJID) ≈ -5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs KAARANAH (IRE) (read through INFLUENTIAL, KOKANEE, BERRY CLEVER) ≈ +4.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs LOOK BACK SMILING (IRE) (read through HIGHFIELD VIKING, IT JUST TAKES TIME, QUEST FOR FUN, SHAZANI) ≈ -3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs AMERICAN STATE (IRE) (read through PALADIN, ORCHARD) ≈ +3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Rated #2 in this field (76.0)Only 4 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“chased leader, edged ahead 2f out, hung left, headed approaching final 1f, no extra”
#3NO KNEE NEVER (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 4 · OR 69 · Pierre-Louis Jamin / James Owen
MARKET 6.4 · the market rates it a 16% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
75.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 4pts off the top, prominent in the betting; a match for the quickest early, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late.
FormLab Figure
75.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 81
Official mark (OR)
69 · last won off 65
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 14 tries · below market expectation (0.89)
Days since last run
3
Sectional clock
Last time: 3.3s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 100.95% (holds late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces and tongue strap · yard 16% with first-time gear (A/E 1.22)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 24 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Owen · 1540 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: at 4-8 odds, without a recent yard winner, on Good to Firm ground
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 12-1519/2029.4%0.9210/8012.5%1.29
At Wolverhampton ✦28/16017.5%1.0714/6521.5%1.25
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 9-10f trips ✦16/14511.0%0.778/6312.7%0.8
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 81 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
Pierre-Louis Jamin · last 14 days: 0/15· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.78 (n73)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n2)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 13
+0.26 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 13
+0.22s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 13
101.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 13
7.20 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
3 Jun 26Nottingham10fGood3rdTrue37.8 +0.16104.2+0.38
22 May 26Pontefract8fGd/Sft4thTrue38.2 +1.35100.1+0.19
8 May 26Ripon9fGood4thTrue39.3 +0.0599.1+0.08
Timed runs 2026-05-08 to 2026-07-18. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
22 May 26 · 8f · Gd/Sft — finished 4th vs 3rd, 3.25L behind
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+3.7L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs PULSAR STAR (read through PORT LOUIS, BELLA BISBEE, MOONJID) ≈ +5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CONCERT BOY (IRE) (read through PITNEY, BOOK OF LIFE, PHOENIX OF DREAMS, JAMAICAN STORM) ≈ -4.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs IMOLA (IRE) (read through PESSOA, PEARLY SQUIRREL, HARBOUR VISION, FOOLS RUSH IN) ≈ +4.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs DARK ROSA (IRE) (read through PITNEY, CILL MOCHEALLOG, SIMPLY BLUE, PEARLY SQUIRREL) ≈ -2.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
AW-PROVEN — 4/16 on the all-weather4lb above his last winning mark (69 today vs 65)Rated #3 in this field (75.0)Improving fast — last run rated 75, 13pts above his recent average of 61.3Lost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 3 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (2 from 4 here)Runs Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, left behind by winner over 1f out, rallied final 100 yds”
#4AMERICAN STATE (IRE)MID
DRAW 11 · OR 69 · Silvestre De Sousa / Ivan Furtado
MARKET 16 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−
74.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 5pts off the top, a yard in form; a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
74.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
69 · last won off 68
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 13 tries · beats market expectation (2.78)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · best on the clock in its race Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.05% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ivan Furtado · 957 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Wolverhampton7/927.6%0.936/3815.8%1.25
In Class 4-5 company18/3225.6%0.8317/1759.7%1.21
At this time of year (Q3)22/19311.4%1.35/3813.2%1.18
In fields of 12-1512/1478.2%1.344/586.9%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 9-10f trips4/596.8%1.320/230.0%0.0
Coming back after 8 to 14 days19/13314.3%1.442/513.9%0.41
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 78 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
Silvestre De Sousa · last 14 days: 2/13· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.86 (n74)· with this yard: A/E 0.88 (n45)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields12th of 13
-0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 13
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 13
104.0%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length12th of 13
6.93 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
7 Jul 26Wolverhampton8fStd4thTrue38.3 -0.12106.9—
10 Jun 26Kempton Park8fSlow6thTrue37.6 -0.32102.9+0.09
Timed runs 2026-03-20 to 2026-07-07. · 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
EAGLE DAY (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 1.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
2 Jun 26 · 8f · Std — finished 10th vs 5th, 4.85L behind
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 4 rival(s) met (+2.2L adj, 5 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs PULSAR STAR (read through PALADIN, ORCHARD) ≈ -3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs IMOLA (IRE) (read through HARBOUR VISION, BARRY'S BOY, R P MCMURPHY, MARRY THE NIGHT) ≈ +2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs LOOK BACK SMILING (IRE) (read through UNION ISLAND, CUSACK, THE HARE RAIL, FLYING FLETCHER) ≈ +2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CONCERT BOY (IRE) (read through MR NUGGET, BAJAN BANDIT, BARRY'S BOY, CRIMINAL SHORE) ≈ -1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven over the trip (13 tries, beats market expectation at 2.78)Stable in form this week — 4 wins from 12 runsMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 4 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“pressed leader, every chance under 2f out, faded”
#5BELLASIO (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 8 · OR 64 · Oliver Stammers / Grant Tuer
MARKET 7.4 · the market rates it a 14% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 2−
74.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 5pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
74.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 74
Official mark (OR)
64 · last won off 62
Record at today's distance
1 win from 9 tries · below market expectation (0.78)
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s) Usually races front-runner · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Grant Tuer · 701 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: off a TFR-RISING figure trend, as an exposed handicapper
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)19/18510.3%0.915/1729.4%2.76
Above their last winning mark15/1649.1%0.7910/4422.7%2.25
Over 9-10f trips6/4912.2%1.112/1513.3%1.64
In Class 4-5 company33/3399.7%0.9612/7615.8%1.61
Coming back after 15 to 45 days16/2008.0%0.778/5514.5%1.55
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-157/1365.1%0.671/313.2%0.45
On the all-weather24/22010.9%1.122/464.3%0.61
Too few runners to read reliably
At Wolverhampton (small sample)3/329.4%1.020/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 74 is below the ~75.0 the race demands
The rider
Oliver Stammers · last 14 days: 1/8· at Wolverhampton: A/E 1.16 (n45)· with this yard: A/E 1.08 (n362)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields13th of 13
-0.14 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 13
-0.02s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 3 of 5
Finish · closing speed13th of 13
97.7%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 13
7.29 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
4 Jul 26Carlisle9fGood1st—38.1 -0.2396.5-0.16—
15 Jun 26Carlisle7fGood2ndTrue37.8 -0.1298.2-0.16
2 Jun 26Newcastle8fStd5thTrue38.2 -0.4897.8—
22 May 26Haydock Park10fGd/Sft5thTrue36.8 -0.0894.4+0.04
Timed runs 2025-07-20 to 2026-07-04. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
5 Jul 25 · 9f · Heavy — finished 2nd vs 13th, 13.4L ahead
AMERICAN STATE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
2 Jun 26 · 8f · Std — finished 5th vs 10th, 4.85L ahead
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+4.9L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs DARK ROSA (IRE) (read through NORFLONDONFOREVER, CRIMSON ROAD) ≈ -3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs IMOLA (IRE) (read through BARRY'S BOY, MILITARY LEADER, ROARING RALPH, CROWNTHORPE) ≈ +2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CONCERT BOY (IRE) (read through JAMAICAN STORM, BARRY'S BOY, CRIMINAL SHORE, CHUZZLEWIT) ≈ -2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs LOOK BACK SMILING (IRE) (read through CUSACK, JEWEL MAKER, UNION ISLAND, BETWEEN ME AND U) ≈ +1.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“close up, led under 2f out, headed close home”
#6LOOK BACK SMILING (IRE)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 9 · OR 65 · Alexandra Egan / Neil Mulholland
MARKET 28 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 1−
73.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 6pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
73.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 94
Official mark (OR)
65 · last won off 83
Record at today's distance
1 win from 24 tries · below market expectation (0.35)
Days since last run
13
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races held-up closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 97.96% (one-paced late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Neil Mulholland · 114 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 4-5 company1/254.0%1.533/1225.0%2.8
On the all-weather2/434.7%0.551/812.5%1.75
Over 9-10f trips2/326.2%0.881/812.5%1.7
In fields of 12-150/230.0%0.01/714.3%1.29
At this time of year (Q3)1/175.9%1.191/425.0%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Below their last winning mark—0/40.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 8 to 14 days (small sample)0/60.0%0.01/250.0%4.55
At Wolverhampton (small sample)2/306.7%0.690/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 94 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
Alexandra Egan · last 14 days: 1/3· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.76 (n11)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 13
+0.25 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph13th of 13
+0.69s
Slow away in 5 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed12th of 13
98.0%
One-paced late
Stride length8th of 13
7.20 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
5 Jun 26Goodwood9fGd/Sft4thTrue38.2 +1.00105.6+1.01
5 Apr 26Bath8fGood10thTrue38.3 +0.0096.7+0.32
22 Nov 25Newcastle8fSlow9thTrue39.7 -0.0894.1+0.56
8 Nov 25Doncaster7fHeavy6thFast early38.2 +0.2193.2+0.79
4 Nov 25Redcar7fGood11thFast early40.9 -0.2498.2+0.76
Timed runs 2025-11-04 to 2026-07-08. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
DARK ROSA (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 6.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
5 Apr 26 · 8f · Good — finished 10th vs 7th, 4L behind
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-6.3L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs CALEDONIAN (read through CANDONOMORE, TEMPUS) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs KAARANAH (IRE) (read through BOOK OF LIFE, SOMKIYR, DEVIOUS DEVAN, UNION ISLAND) ≈ +5.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs IMOLA (IRE) (read through OMAN, THE DARK BARON, LAW DEGREE) ≈ -4.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs PULSAR STAR (read through HIGHFIELD VIKING, IT JUST TAKES TIME, QUEST FOR FUN, SHAZANI) ≈ +3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
18lb below his last winning mark (65 today vs 83)Improving fast — last run rated 73, 13pts above his recent average of 59.3Lost roughly 3.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“dwelt, rear, headway wide over 2f out, hung right over 1f out, not sustain effort”
#7DARK ROSA (IRE)MIDFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 10 · OR 66 · David Probert / Georgina Nicholls
MARKET 7.2 · the market rates it a 14% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
72.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 7pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; one-paced late — 11th of 13 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
72.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 79
Official mark (OR)
66 · last won off 66
Record at today's distance
1 win from 8 tries · beats market expectation (1.11)
Days since last run
37
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Georgina Nicholls · 101 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Wolverhampton1/812.5%1.291/714.3%1.68
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days4/3112.9%1.291/244.2%0.5
In Class 4-5 company1/382.6%0.451/214.8%0.71
In fields of 12-150/160.0%0.01/137.7%0.8
Too few runners to read reliably
Over 9-10f trips (small sample)2/1513.3%0.920/30.0%0.0
Back at their last winning mark (small sample)1/1100.0%6.00/10.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)4/2814.3%1.260/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 83 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
David Probert · last 14 days: 8/43· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.96 (n287)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 13
+0.42 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 13
+0.23s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed11th of 13
100.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length11th of 13
7.07 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
14 Jun 26Salisbury8fGood3rdFast early38.8 +0.5298.5+0.81
15 May 26Newbury8fGood8thFast early39.9 +0.6190.8+0.02
Timed runs 2025-11-24 to 2026-06-14. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
AMERICAN STATE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 1.4L ahead on today's terms · confirms
LOOK BACK SMILING (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 6.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
5 Apr 26 · 8f · Good — finished 7th vs 10th, 4L ahead
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+3.9L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs DISTINCTION (IRE) (read through LOVE YOUR WORK, MOUNT KING, RAJAPOUR, MISSION COMMAND) ≈ -5.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs KAARANAH (IRE) (read through CLOCH NUA, PITNEY, SANT ALESSIO, BERRY CLEVER) ≈ +5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs EAGLE DAY (IRE) (read through RHYTHM N ROCK, ERNIE'S VALENTINE, THE HARE RAIL, SPIRIT LEAD ME) ≈ +4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs IMOLA (IRE) (read through SERIOUS LOOK, RHYTHM N ROCK, PEARLY SQUIRREL, THE DARK BARON) ≈ +3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Improving fast — last run rated 72, 10pts above his recent average of 61.7Lost roughly 3.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 1 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“dwelt, off pace, headway under 3f out, shaken up 2f out, stayed on final 1f”
#8IMOLA (IRE)MID
DRAW 6 · OR 65 · T. Kiely-Marshall / Joey Ramsden
MARKET 16.5 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 7−
67.7FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 11.3pts off the top, in form; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
67.7 · ranked #8 here · career best 71
Official mark (OR)
65 · last won off 62
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 13 tries · in line with the market (1.03)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.58% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Joey Ramsden · 161 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 9-10f trips0/10.0%0.02/1216.7%1.34
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days1/147.1%0.91/531.9%0.17
On the all-weather2/287.1%0.984/924.3%0.35
In Class 4-5 company1/119.1%1.662/424.8%0.46
In fields of 12-151/119.1%1.681/254.0%0.49
At this time of year (Q3)—1/156.7%0.53
At Wolverhampton0/80.0%0.02/326.2%0.55
Above their last winning mark1/616.7%1.685/3813.2%0.84
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 71 is below the ~75.0 the race demands
The rider
T. Kiely-Marshall · last 14 days: 0/7· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.84 (n24)· with this yard: A/E 1.4 (n11)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 13
+0.23 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 13
+0.24s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed6th of 13
102.6%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length10th of 13
7.11 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-01-23 to 2026-07-06. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
CONCERT BOY (IRE) · 3 meetings≈ 18.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
9 Dec 25 · 8f · Slow — finished DNF vs 1st, 38.5L behind
THIN [n=3 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-18.1L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs LOOK BACK SMILING (IRE) (read through OMAN, THE DARK BARON, LAW DEGREE) ≈ +4.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs NO KNEE NEVER (IRE) (read through PESSOA, PEARLY SQUIRREL, HARBOUR VISION, FOOLS RUSH IN) ≈ -4.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs DARK ROSA (IRE) (read through SERIOUS LOOK, RHYTHM N ROCK, PEARLY SQUIRREL, THE DARK BARON) ≈ -3.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs DISTINCTION (IRE) (read through HASHTAGNOTIONS, LATIN) ≈ +3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
AW-PROVEN — 3/19 on the all-weather3lb above his last winning mark (65 today vs 62)Lost roughly 1.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (2 from 6 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“bumped start, off pace, ridden 2f out, headway when hampered 1f out, kept on”
#9DISTINCTION (IRE)MID
DRAW 12 · OR 60 · P. J. McDonald / John Mackie
MARKET 50 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−
65.7FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 13.3pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
65.7 · ranked #9 here · career best 74
Official mark (OR)
60 · last won off 67
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 37 tries · beats market expectation (1.98)
Days since last run
13
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races midfield · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 105.06% (strong late)
Headgear
Visor
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 21 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John Mackie · 236 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Below their last winning mark2/1414.3%1.742/1414.3%1.52
In Class 4-5 company7/759.3%1.223/2611.5%1.39
Coming back after 8 to 14 days7/4316.3%1.534/2119.0%1.32
On the all-weather ✦11/1119.9%1.29/5815.5%1.27
At Wolverhampton3/407.5%0.934/2416.7%1.18
In fields of 12-151/412.4%0.431/128.3%1.15
Too few runners to read reliably
Over 9-10f trips (small sample)3/1717.6%3.050/40.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)3/417.3%1.430/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 75 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
P. J. McDonald · last 14 days: 5/22· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.79 (n98)· with this yard: A/E 1.4 (n44)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields10th of 13
-0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 37.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph11th of 13
+0.41s
Slow away in 4 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed2nd of 13
105.1%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length13th of 13
6.87 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-04-07 to 2026-07-08. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
5 Jul 25 · 9f · Heavy — finished 13th vs 2nd, 13.4L behind
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (-3.6L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs DARK ROSA (IRE) (read through LOVE YOUR WORK, MOUNT KING, RAJAPOUR, MISSION COMMAND) ≈ +5.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs IMOLA (IRE) (read through HASHTAGNOTIONS, LATIN) ≈ -3.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CALEDONIAN (read through BEACH POINT, HOLLY MIST, SALARIA, KOKANEE) ≈ +3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CONCERT BOY (IRE) (read through TITAINIUM, SELECTION, PINK AZALEA, HOSTELRY) ≈ +2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
7lb below his last winning mark (60 today vs 67)Proven over the trip (37 tries, beats market expectation at 1.98)Lost roughly 2.2 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 8 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“off pace, shaken up over 1f out, edged right, never dangerous”
#10CALEDONIANHELD-UP
DRAW 3 · OR 67 · Harry Vigors / David Simcock
MARKET 15 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−
65FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 14pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
65 · ranked #10 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
67 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 5 tries
Days since last run
37
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.0s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races held-up (one-paced)
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 102.77% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David Simcock · 747 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 12-158/938.6%1.112/1513.3%2.25
At Wolverhampton12/9612.5%0.915/2025.0%1.73
In Class 4-5 company37/34110.9%0.8711/7215.3%1.28
On the all-weather ✦48/36713.1%1.0313/8116.0%1.28
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 9-10f trips12/9712.4%1.141/214.8%0.53
Coming back after 15 to 45 days40/30113.3%1.14/567.1%0.8
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 77 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
Harry Vigors · last 14 days: 0/13· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.33 (n29)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields8th of 13
+0.12 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 13
+0.38s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed4th of 13
102.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length9th of 13
7.16 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
14 Jun 26Doncaster11fGd/Sft4thTrue38.5 +0.05103.7+0.10
15 May 26Newmarket10fGood8thTrue39.7 +0.21101.7+0.63
Timed runs 2025-05-10 to 2026-06-14. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs LOOK BACK SMILING (IRE) (read through CANDONOMORE, TEMPUS) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs DISTINCTION (IRE) (read through BEACH POINT, HOLLY MIST, SALARIA, KOKANEE) ≈ -3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs EAGLE DAY (IRE) (read through EUPATOR, GREAT BLASKET, A MAJOR PAYNE, NAKAAHA) ≈ +2.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs NO KNEE NEVER (IRE) (read through A MAJOR PAYNE, CAPH STAR, DAPPER GEE GEE) ≈ +1.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formOnly 5 runs at this distanceHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“waited with, outpaced over 2f out, plugged on”
#11EAGLE DAY (IRE)MID
DRAW 1 · OR 66 · Pat Cosgrave / David Evans
MARKET 26 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 5−
65.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
11th on the figures, 14pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
65.0 · ranked #11 here · career best 89
Official mark (OR)
66 · last won off 67
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 29 tries · in line with the market (1.02)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.71% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David Evans · 894 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 12-1511/1457.6%1.083/2313.0%1.28
In Class 4-5 company ✦30/3378.9%1.0112/9712.4%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days ✦17/16110.6%0.943/496.1%0.46
At this time of year (Q3)19/2069.2%0.922/267.7%0.53
At Wolverhampton12/1448.3%0.722/336.1%0.58
Over 9-10f trips6/5311.3%0.982/258.0%0.76
On the all-weather ✦40/38810.3%0.957/907.8%0.77
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 89 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
Pat Cosgrave · last 14 days: 1/20· at Wolverhampton: A/E 1.18 (n90)· with this yard: A/E 1.29 (n90)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 13
+0.19 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 13
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 13
102.7%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length7th of 13
7.20 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
7 Jul 26Wolverhampton8fStd9thTrue39.1 +0.63107.8—
16 Jun 26Wolverhampton9fStd4thTrue39.8 +0.87104.2+0.21
4 Jun 26Ffos Las8fGd/Sft10thFast early37.1 -0.53101.1-0.16
Timed runs 2026-02-17 to 2026-07-07. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
PULSAR STAR · 1 meeting≈ 14.4L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
18 Apr 26 · 8.3f · Good — finished 8th vs 2nd, 12.65L behind
Read through a common rival
vs DARK ROSA (IRE) (read through RHYTHM N ROCK, ERNIE'S VALENTINE, THE HARE RAIL, SPIRIT LEAD ME) ≈ -4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs SYMPHONY OF JOY (IRE) (read through GREAT BLASKET, THE HARE RAIL, EMPIRESTATEOFMIND, ZARATHOS) ≈ -3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CALEDONIAN (read through EUPATOR, GREAT BLASKET, A MAJOR PAYNE, NAKAAHA) ≈ -2.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs IMOLA (IRE) (read through RHYTHM N ROCK, OMAN, IMPLIED VOLATILITY, R P MCMURPHY) ≈ -1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
AW-PROVEN — 3/23 on the all-weatherRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (2 from 15 here)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, pushed along over 2f out, challenged approaching final 1f, no extra final 100 yds”
#12SYMPHONY OF JOY (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 7 · OR 66 · Jason Hart / Kevin & Lauren Frost
MARKET 23 · the market rates it a 4% chance
59.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
12th on the figures, 20pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; solid late gains (10th of 13 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
59.0 · ranked #12 here · career best 74
Official mark (OR)
66 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 2 tries
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.0s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.7% (holds late)
Headgear
First-time tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Kevin & Lauren Frost
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 75 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
Jason Hart · last 14 days: 12/46· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.74 (n165)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n2)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 13
+0.36 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 13
+0.34s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed10th of 13
100.7%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 13
7.44 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
5 Jul 26Southwell7fStd6thTrue39.1 +0.20101.9+0.20
4 Jun 26Wetherby7fGd/Frm11thFast early41.3 +0.27103.3+0.48
7 May 26Windsor8fGd/Frm7thTrue39.6 +0.0097.8+0.30
14 Oct 25Leicester7fGd/Sft4thSlow early38.1 +0.00101.8+0.18
Timed runs 2025-07-30 to 2026-07-05. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
PULSAR STAR · 1 meeting≈ 0.8L behind on today's terms · reverses
14 Oct 25 · 7f · Gd/Sft — finished 4th vs 2nd, 0.8L behind
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 1 rival(s) met (-0.8L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs EAGLE DAY (IRE) (read through GREAT BLASKET, THE HARE RAIL, EMPIRESTATEOFMIND, ZARATHOS) ≈ +3.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs LOOK BACK SMILING (IRE) (read through CRIMSON ROAD, THE HARE RAIL, RISEN AGAIN, EMPIRESTATEOFMIND) ≈ +2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs AMERICAN STATE (IRE) (read through THE HARE RAIL, ZARATHOS, NARMAR) ≈ -1.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs DARK ROSA (IRE) (read through VITALLINE, CRIMSON ROAD, ZARATHOS, THE HARE RAIL) ≈ -0.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Only 2 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Held-Up — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“off pace, ridden wide over 3f out, plugged on”
#13CONCERT BOY (IRE)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 5 · OR 58 · Sean Dylan Bowen / Katie Scott
MARKET 65 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−
58.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
13th on the figures, 21pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
58.0 · ranked #13 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
58 · last won off 54
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 24 tries · below market expectation (0.72)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s) · among the slowest in its race Usually races held-up closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 101.5% (holds late)
Headgear
Blinkers
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 27 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Katie Scott · 495 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: off a steady mark, with their 4yo+s
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)8/1346.0%0.62/1513.3%1.72
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On the all-weather11/1497.4%0.810/310.0%0.0
Above their last winning mark7/907.8%0.522/395.1%0.58
In Class 4-5 company12/1428.5%0.752/494.1%0.59
Too few runners to read reliably
At Wolverhampton (small sample)1/303.3%0.40/20.0%0.0
Over 9-10f trips (small sample)4/3710.8%1.40/50.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 77 at/around today's trip, clears the ~75.0 demand
The rider
Sean Dylan Bowen · last 14 days: 1/14· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.8 (n131)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields11th of 13
-0.06 mph
About the level of its fields · 35.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph12th of 13
+0.46s
Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed7th of 13
101.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 13
7.30 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jul 26Ayr8fGd/Frm7th—41.1 +0.02109.4+0.57—
22 Jun 26Musselburgh7fGd/Frm8thTrue39.4 +0.00101.7+0.00
8 Jun 26Carlisle9fGd/Sft10thFast early35.8 -0.6488.1+1.03
27 Mar 26Newcastle8fStd4thTrue37.4 +0.00101.0+0.20
21 Mar 26Newcastle8fStd6thSlow early40.3 +0.00110.9+0.77
12 Mar 26Newcastle7fStd2ndTrue40.9 +0.2997.9+0.19
Timed runs 2026-03-12 to 2026-07-06. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
9 Dec 25 · 8f · Slow — finished 1st vs DNF, 38.5L ahead
THIN [n=3 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+18.1L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs KAARANAH (IRE) (read through PITNEY, BOOK OF LIFE, MR NUGGET, STARLINER) ≈ +5.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs NO KNEE NEVER (IRE) (read through PITNEY, BOOK OF LIFE, PHOENIX OF DREAMS, JAMAICAN STORM) ≈ +4.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs DISTINCTION (IRE) (read through TITAINIUM, SELECTION, PINK AZALEA, HOSTELRY) ≈ -2.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs BELLASIO (IRE) (read through JAMAICAN STORM, BARRY'S BOY, CRIMINAL SHORE, CHUZZLEWIT) ≈ +2.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
AW-PROVEN — 5/32 on the all-weather4lb above his last winning mark (58 today vs 54)Lost roughly 2.6 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“dwelt, rear, pushed along under 3f out, ridden and headway over 1f out, plugged on”