THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.2%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.1%192 races · latest settled day: #1 4/16, top-3 9/16forensic read: #1 27.7% · top-3 63% (119)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (93% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (67% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 48% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, MUSICAL SOLDIER (IRE) leads on 64, 4pts clear of BASED (IRE) — in form. The case against the top pick: rated well above the mark it last won from. The shape danger is MAGIC LADY MAE (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making BASED (IRE) the 42% favourite — a horse our figures rate 2nd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 6
MUSICAL SOLDIER (IRE)
OR 55 · Jack Callan / Ollie Sangster
MARKET 3.85 · the market rates it a 26% chance
64.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (64.0)Race-fit — ran 7 days agoA course winner (1 from 3 here)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 8
BASED (IRE)
OR 58 · Cieren Fallon / William Knight
MARKET 2.4 · the market rates it a 42% chance
60.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 6−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (60.0)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 2 here)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
OH SO PERFECT (IRE)
OR 56 · Alistair Rawlinson / Michael Appleby
MARKET 15.5 · the market rates it a 6% chance
58.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (58.0)Proven over the trip (9 tries, beats market expectation at 1.68)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1BASED (IRE)net +9figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip − 5lb+ above last winning mark
2MUSICAL SOLDIER (IRE)net +5figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup − 5lb+ above last winning mark
3OH SO PERFECT (IRE)net +3form (top-3 LTO or recent win), sharp from the stalls, proven at trip, proven on the going, yard positive in today’s setup − yard cold, sectional profile stale
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
MUSICAL SOLDIER (IRE) carries rated well above the mark it last won from. BASED (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge MUSICAL SOLDIER (IRE) lacks: a yard in form.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
ELECTROCUTION FIGURE #6
Chelsea Banham's runners in Class 6-7 company win 22.6% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Chelsea Banham's runners kept to the same class win 22.4% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
NEAT AND TIDY FIGURE #9
Richard Hughes's runners at Wolverhampton win 21.6% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (5 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
15 similar races at WOLVERHAMPTON, 6.7-7.7f, 3yo handicaps, Class 5-7, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (93% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (67% from the first three favourites). 0% won last time out, 13% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Last ran
67% 15-45d
27% within 14d
7% 46-90d
Market
40% 2nd favourite
33% 4th+ in the market
20% favourite
LTO form
87% unplaced last time
13% placed last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 9 runners · stalls 1–10
12345678910
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–10).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
MAGIC LADY MAE (IRE)MID49.2%102.4the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
NEAT AND TIDYPROMINENT49.0%101.6just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls
BASED (IRE)HELD-UP48.5%99.7one-paced late — 7th of 9 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
DUSK DAMSELMID48.2%100.5one-paced late — 6th of 9 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
FULLSTOP (IRE)PROMINENT51.4%97.7the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
OH SO PERFECT (IRE)PROMINENT49.1%101.2just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls
MUSICAL SOLDIER (IRE)PROMINENT50.6%97.6a match for the quickest early, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f
CROWN THE FUTURE (IRE)PROMINENT48.7%102.2just behind the quickest early pair — presses, at the tempo that wins here — and holds on late
ELECTROCUTIONMID48.9%101.0solid late gains (5th of 9 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
FULLSTOP (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~2.1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
MUSICAL SOLDIER (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.8 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.13s off the field’s best
NEAT AND TIDYPROMINENTtypically ~1.6 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
OH SO PERFECT (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.4 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
CROWN THE FUTURE (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.06s off the field’s best
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1MUSICAL SOLDIER (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 6 · OR 55 · Jack Callan / Ollie Sangster
MARKET 3.85 · the market rates it a 26% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−
64.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 4pts clear of the next, in form; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
64.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 64
Official mark (OR)
55 · last won off 50
Record at today's distance
1 win from 12 tries · below market expectation (0.64)
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s) Usually races front-runner (cooked late) · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ollie Sangster · 710 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.7 on the exchange
Signature angle: keeping the same jockey
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
On the all-weather ✦27/21212.7%1.0925/12919.4%1.42
Above their last winning mark9/4719.1%0.9216/6425.0%1.31
At Wolverhampton ✦8/4219.0%1.568/4717.0%1.15
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after within 7 days (small sample)1/812.5%0.594/1233.3%0.93
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 66 at/around today's trip, clears the ~63.0 demand
The rider
Jack Callan · last 14 days: 3/26· at Wolverhampton: A/E 1.18 (n54)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n3)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 9
+0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 9
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 9
97.6%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 9
7.61 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
2 Jun 26Wolverhampton7fStd2ndTrue39.0 +0.17104.3+0.18
21 May 26Catterick Bridge7fGood5th—41.3 +0.2795.4+0.28
5 May 26Wolverhampton7fStd1stTrue39.2 +0.0099.0+0.02
Timed runs 2026-05-05 to 2026-07-14. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
BASED (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.5L ahead on today's terms · confirms
2 Jun 26 · 7.2f · Std — finished 2nd vs 1st, 2L behind
2 Jun 26 · 7.2f · Std — finished 2nd vs 4th, 2.5L ahead
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 3 rival(s) met (+1.3L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs CROWN THE FUTURE (IRE) (read through LADY BIRGMA, TIME FOR ACTION, LASER LUCK) ≈ +3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs NEAT AND TIDY (read through MADMAN, LUNA BEAUX, DENBY'S DREAM) ≈ +3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs OH SO PERFECT (IRE) (read through LADY BIRGMA, GRAND ECHO, TRUCIAL PEARL, LUNA BEAUX) ≈ +2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs FULLSTOP (IRE) (read through CASTLEKEELY, MADMAN, APEX STAR, PINK DIAMOND GIRL) ≈ -1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (55 today vs 50)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (64.0)Improving fast — last run rated 64, 10pts above his recent average of 54.0Stable cold this week — 1 wins from 13 runsRace-fit — ran 7 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 3 here)Runs Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, ridden around 3f out, closed down final 1f, edged out only late”
#2BASED (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 8 · OR 58 · Cieren Fallon / William Knight
MARKET 2.4 · the market rates it a 42% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 6−
60.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 4pts off the top, a yard in form; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
60.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 66
Official mark (OR)
58 · last won off 53
Record at today's distance
1 win from 7 tries · beats market expectation (1.37)
Days since last run
26
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.73% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
William Knight · 555 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)28/20513.7%1.135/2222.7%1.56
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Wolverhampton6/3616.7%1.141/128.3%0.46
In Class 6-7 company18/9518.9%1.15/4411.4%0.59
On the all-weather19/15312.4%1.015/4112.2%0.59
Above their last winning mark29/13521.5%1.392/296.9%0.61
In fields of 8-1133/21915.1%1.237/6311.1%0.73
Over 7-8f trips31/20215.3%1.38/6711.9%0.8
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 66 at/around today's trip, clears the ~63.0 demand
The rider
Cieren Fallon · last 14 days: 5/31· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.71 (n179)· with this yard: A/E 1 (n67)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 9
+0.45 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 9
+0.21s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 9
99.7%
One-paced late
Stride length8th of 9
7.02 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
25 Jun 26Newcastle7fSlow7thFast early40.6 +0.1696.0—
2 Jun 26Wolverhampton7fStd1stTrue40.1 +1.26108.0+0.27
19 May 26Lingfield7fGood7thTrue40.7 +0.6491.2+0.00
Timed runs 2025-10-02 to 2026-06-25. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
2 Jun 26 · 7.2f · Std — finished 1st vs 2nd, 2L ahead
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (+1.6L adj, 4 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs FULLSTOP (IRE) (read through SUPERSTORM, PERSONAL PRIDE, STARAKOVA, MONK'S HILL) ≈ -5.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CROWN THE FUTURE (IRE) (read through POPTY PING, SURGEON COMMANDER, STARAKOVA) ≈ -3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs OH SO PERFECT (IRE) (read through GILES GLORY, FRANKALI, STARAKOVA) ≈ -3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MAGIC LADY MAE (IRE) (read through FANJOVE, POPTY PING, SURGEON COMMANDER, ROUSHAM) ≈ -1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (58 today vs 53)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (60.0)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 2 here)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Held-Up) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“dwelt, tracked pace, effort 2f out, faded final 1f”
#3OH SO PERFECT (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 1 · OR 56 · Alistair Rawlinson / Michael Appleby
MARKET 15.5 · the market rates it a 6% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
58.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 6pts off the top, proven at the trip; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
58.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 59
Official mark (OR)
56 · last won off 53
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 9 tries · beats market expectation (1.68)
Days since last run
131
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 101.21% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 131 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael Appleby · 1548 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: in fields of 8-11
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 8-11 ✦77/68911.2%0.999/1575.7%0.5
At Wolverhampton ✦17/15211.2%0.833/358.6%0.6
At this time of year (Q3)45/32813.7%1.223/397.7%0.7
In Class 6-7 company39/29813.1%1.058/6512.3%0.84
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 91 to 180 days (small sample)2/593.4%0.312/1811.1%1.21
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 63 at/around today's trip, clears the ~63.0 demand
The rider
Alistair Rawlinson · last 14 days: 0/6· at Wolverhampton: A/E 1.15 (n141)· with this yard: A/E 1.07 (n561)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 9
+0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 9
+0.03s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 9
101.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length5th of 9
7.15 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
12 Mar 26Chelmsford City7fStd1stTrue38.9 -0.14101.8-0.14
12 Feb 26Chelmsford City7fStd1stTrue39.4 +0.14105.1-0.03
27 Jan 26Wolverhampton6fStd4thTrue40.3 +0.3297.7+0.03
17 Jan 26Southwell6fStd3rdTrue38.8 -0.34101.9+0.09
25 Nov 25Wolverhampton7fSlow7thTrue37.6 +0.00102.9+0.10
30 Oct 25Chelmsford City6fStd4thTrue41.1 +0.5697.8+0.14
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-10-30 to 2026-03-12 · last timed run 131 days ago — the profile is out of date. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
CROWN THE FUTURE (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 14.1L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
12 Feb 26 · 7f · Std — finished 1st vs 3rd, 2.75L ahead
12 Mar 26 · 7f · Std — finished 1st vs 3rd, 1.2L ahead
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-6.6L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs BASED (IRE) (read through GILES GLORY, FRANKALI, STARAKOVA) ≈ +3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs FULLSTOP (IRE) (read through STARAKOVA, FRANKALI, CALABRIAN SOLDATO) ≈ -2.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MUSICAL SOLDIER (IRE) (read through LADY BIRGMA, GRAND ECHO, TRUCIAL PEARL, LUNA BEAUX) ≈ -2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs DUSK DAMSEL (read through LUNA BEAUX, CALABRIAN SOLDATO, FRANKALI) ≈ -2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (56 today vs 53)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (58.0)Proven over the trip (9 tries, beats market expectation at 1.68)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, pushed along approaching home turn, closed down late on, driven out”
#4DUSK DAMSELMID
DRAW 3 · OR 57 · David Probert / J. S. Moore
MARKET 32 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 5−
56.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 8pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; a yard out of form.
FormLab Figure
56.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 63
Official mark (OR)
57 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 6 tries
Days since last run
49
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
J. S. Moore · 520 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Wolverhampton8/7910.1%1.282/1811.1%1.77
Coming back after 46 to 90 days2/336.1%1.21/128.3%1.35
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)10/1546.5%0.820/170.0%0.0
In fields of 8-1117/2008.5%1.130/600.0%0.0
In Class 6-7 company12/1996.0%0.631/362.8%0.33
Over 7-8f trips15/1768.5%1.181/333.0%0.48
On the all-weather15/1897.9%1.02/424.8%0.72
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 63 at/around today's trip, clears the ~63.0 demand
The rider
David Probert · last 14 days: 8/43· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.96 (n287)· with this yard: A/E 0.71 (n29)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 9
+0.41 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 39.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 9
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 9
100.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 9
7.04 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
2 Jun 26Wolverhampton7fStd5thTrue39.5 +0.74106.5+0.00
14 May 26Salisbury6fGood14thFast early38.7 +0.2285.9+0.28
Timed runs 2026-03-03 to 2026-06-02. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
BASED (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.0L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
2 Jun 26 · 7.2f · Std — finished 5th vs 1st, 5.5L behind
14 May 26 · 6f · Good — finished 14th vs 6th, 28.6L behind
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 4 rival(s) met (-4.4L adj, 4 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs OH SO PERFECT (IRE) (read through LUNA BEAUX, CALABRIAN SOLDATO, FRANKALI) ≈ +2.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“held up, pushed along wide 2f out, never dangerous”
#5CROWN THE FUTURE (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 4 · OR 52 · Molly Gunn / Tony Carroll
MARKET 36 · the market rates it a 3% chance
53FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 11pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
53 · ranked #5 here · career best 60
Official mark (OR)
52 · last won off 51
Record at today's distance
1 win from 8 tries · below market expectation (0.44)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: 5.0s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 102.23% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 127 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tony Carroll · 2389 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange
Signature angle: at Bath, at this time of year (Q2), on turf, off a TFR-FALLING figure trend, with the mark MARK-FLAT, with a CLAIM-7 claimer up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 60 is below the ~63.0 the race demands
The rider
Molly Gunn · last 14 days: 0/2· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.68 (n54)· with this yard: A/E 1.2 (n182)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields8th of 9
-0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 9
+0.06s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 9
102.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 9
7.46 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-11-25 to 2026-07-06. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
OH SO PERFECT (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 14.1L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
12 Feb 26 · 7f · Std — finished 3rd vs 1st, 2.75L behind
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+8.6L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs MAGIC LADY MAE (IRE) (read through POPTY PING, SURGEON COMMANDER) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs FULLSTOP (IRE) (read through STARAKOVA, PRANCY PEER) ≈ -5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MUSICAL SOLDIER (IRE) (read through LADY BIRGMA, TIME FOR ACTION, LASER LUCK) ≈ -3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs BASED (IRE) (read through POPTY PING, SURGEON COMMANDER, STARAKOVA) ≈ +3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayStable in form this week — 3 wins from 15 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 4 here)Runs Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“soon led, joined after 2f, edged ahead over 2f out, headed soon after, weakened final 1f”
#6ELECTROCUTIONMID
DRAW 2 · OR 50 · Joey Haynes / Chelsea Banham
MARKET 28 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 6+ / 1−
53.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 11pts off the top, fit and race-ready; solid late gains (5th of 9 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
53.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 63
Official mark (OR)
50 · last won off 51
Record at today's distance
1 win from 13 tries · beats market expectation (1.14)
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: 2.6s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 101.05% (holds late)
Headgear
First-time blinkers
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Chelsea Banham · 278 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.3 on the exchange
Signature angle: over an unchanged trip
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)4/557.3%1.093/837.5%2.5
At Wolverhampton0/600.0%0.04/1822.2%1.95
Below their last winning mark3/1030.0%2.591/911.1%1.88
On the all-weather ✦17/16910.1%1.0411/4922.4%1.65
Coming back after 15 to 45 days5/1034.9%0.557/3917.9%1.39
In Class 6-7 company ✦16/14710.9%1.017/3122.6%1.35
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 7-8f trips0/370.0%0.01/234.3%0.8
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 63 at/around today's trip, clears the ~63.0 demand
The rider
Joey Haynes · last 14 days: 2/7· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.76 (n201)· with this yard: A/E 1.13 (n344)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 9
+0.18 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 9
+0.28s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 9
101.0%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 9
7.17 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Brighton6fGood6thSlow early41.2 -0.1791.0+0.29
2 Jun 26Wolverhampton7fStd4thTrue39.9 +1.12107.8+0.57
Timed runs 2026-02-25 to 2026-06-30. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
BASED (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 2.4L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
2 Jun 26 · 7.2f · Std — finished 4th vs 1st, 4.5L behind
TEN CUIDADO (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 11.2L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
3 Nov 25 · 7.2f · Slow — finished 8th vs 4th, 11.25L behind
OH SO PERFECT (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 2.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
12 Mar 26 · 7f · Std — finished 3rd vs 1st, 1.2L behind
2 Jun 26 · 7.2f · Std — finished 4th vs 2nd, 2.5L behind
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 5 rival(s) met (-1.9L adj, 6 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs FULLSTOP (IRE) (read through STARAKOVA, MONK'S HILL, CORNICHE GIRL, FRANKALI) ≈ -3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CROWN THE FUTURE (IRE) (read through LADY BIRGMA, FORCEFUL LADY, HARSWELL RIVER, SPIRIT OF MARA) ≈ +1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayImproving fast — last run rated 53, 10pts above his recent average of 43.0Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 6 here)
LTO comment
“always behind”
#7MAGIC LADY MAE (IRE)MID
DRAW 9 · OR 60 · Jack Gilligan / Lawrence Mullaney
MARKET 38 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−
52.7FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 11.3pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
52.7 · ranked #7 here · career best 62
Official mark (OR)
60 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 5 tries
Days since last run
37
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s) Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.39% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Lawrence Mullaney · 108 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Wolverhampton1/616.7%0.940/60.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3)1/214.8%0.680/50.0%0.0
On the all-weather4/419.8%1.270/290.0%0.0
In Class 6-7 company4/439.3%0.842/395.1%0.57
Coming back after 15 to 45 days2/277.4%0.831/214.8%0.68
Over 7-8f trips4/468.7%0.872/316.5%0.72
In fields of 8-115/4710.6%1.22/336.1%0.74
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 63 at/around today's trip, clears the ~63.0 demand
The rider
Jack Gilligan · last 14 days: 1/5· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.67 (n24)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 9
+0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 9
+0.22s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 9
102.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length7th of 9
7.02 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
14 Jun 26Doncaster7fGood11thTrue40.6 +0.29101.2+0.29
28 Apr 26Southwell4fStd7thTrue42.0 -0.3698.0+0.03
7 Apr 26Southwell6fStd7thTrue39.9 -0.20103.6+0.40
12 Mar 26Chelmsford City7fStd3rdSlow early38.8 +0.38102.3-0.04
1 Oct 25Kempton Park6fStd10thSlow early40.3 +0.35106.9+0.40
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-10-01 to 2026-06-14. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs CROWN THE FUTURE (IRE) (read through POPTY PING, SURGEON COMMANDER) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs BASED (IRE) (read through FANJOVE, POPTY PING, SURGEON COMMANDER, ROUSHAM) ≈ +1.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Only 5 runs at this distanceHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“rear, pushed along over 2f out, forced to switch soon after, passed beaten rivals”
#8FULLSTOP (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 10 · OR 57 · Kieran O'Neill / Grace Harris
MARKET 9.8 · the market rates it a 10% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−
51.7FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 12.3pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
51.7 · ranked #8 here · career best 61
Official mark (OR)
57 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 7 tries
Days since last run
68
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.4s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Grace Harris · 452 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Wolverhampton5/608.3%1.423/1717.6%1.81
On the all-weather8/889.1%1.493/2313.0%1.56
In fields of 8-11 ✦13/1827.1%1.038/5714.0%1.46
In Class 6-7 company17/2098.1%0.959/6414.1%1.2
Over 7-8f trips3/614.9%0.895/4610.9%1.2
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)1/166.2%0.940/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 63 at/around today's trip, clears the ~63.0 demand
The rider
Kieran O'Neill · last 14 days: 1/13· at Wolverhampton: A/E 1.14 (n376)· with this yard: A/E 0.67 (n87)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 9
+0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 9
+0.02s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 9
97.7%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 9
7.62 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
14 May 26Salisbury6fGood6thFast early38.7 +0.2492.9+0.00
Timed runs 2025-08-28 to 2026-05-14. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
14 May 26 · 6f · Good — finished 6th vs 14th, 28.6L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+28.6L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs NEAT AND TIDY (read through SUP OF RED, MADMAN) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs TEN CUIDADO (IRE) (read through BLUE CELESTIAL, ROCCOBEAR) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs BASED (IRE) (read through SUPERSTORM, PERSONAL PRIDE, STARAKOVA, MONK'S HILL) ≈ +5.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CROWN THE FUTURE (IRE) (read through STARAKOVA, PRANCY PEER) ≈ +5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, ridden over 2f out, weakened final 1f”
#9NEAT AND TIDYPROMINENT
DRAW 7 · OR 59 · Donagh Murphy / Richard Hughes
MARKET 32 · the market rates it a 3% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
50FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 14pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
50 · ranked #9 here · career best 60
Official mark (OR)
59 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
165
Sectional clock
Last time: 3.6s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races prominent and weakens · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 101.62% (holds late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 165 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard Hughes · 1053 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-11 ✦60/39915.0%1.0826/15017.3%1.37
At Wolverhampton ✦19/8921.3%1.288/3721.6%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 91 to 180 days0/170.0%0.05/2718.5%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
In Class 6-7 company (small sample)20/7726.0%1.523/1618.8%1.47
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 60 is below the ~63.0 the race demands
The rider
Donagh Murphy · last 14 days: 0/11· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.79 (n29)· with this yard: A/E 0.74 (n45)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields9th of 9
-0.39 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 38.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 9
+0.02s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 9
101.6%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length9th of 9
6.73 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
10 Dec 25Kempton Park7fStd9thSlow early37.9 -1.0196.2-0.13
27 Nov 25Chelmsford City7fSlow5thSlow early39.2 -0.20105.8+0.19
Timed runs 2025-09-19 to 2025-12-10 · last timed run 223 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 3 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs FULLSTOP (IRE) (read through SUP OF RED, MADMAN) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MUSICAL SOLDIER (IRE) (read through MADMAN, LUNA BEAUX, DENBY'S DREAM) ≈ -3.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Only 4 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 2 wins from 14 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question