FORMLAB Race Report — Wolverhampton 20:30

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Wolverhampton · 20:30

Class 6 · 8.65f · Standard

GENERATED 2026-07-21 · 10 RUNNERS PROFILED

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.2%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.1%192 races · latest settled day: #1 4/16, top-3 9/16forensic read: #1 27.7% · top-3 63% (119)full record →

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

ICONIC DAWN is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here typically raced recently (82% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (65% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 4th at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 48% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, CASE STUDY leads on 67, 3pts clear of POSITIVE THOUGHTS (IRE) — sharp from the stalls. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is BLUE CELESTIAL — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making BLUE CELESTIAL the 37% favourite — a horse our figures rate 3rd.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 5

CASE STUDY

OR 58 · Jack Callan / George Boughey

MARKET 10.5 · the market rates it a 10% chance

67.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−The top rating in this field (67.0)

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 6

POSITIVE THOUGHTS (IRE)

OR 60 · Jason Hart / John & Sean Quinn

MARKET 6.4 · the market rates it a 16% chance

64.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 1−Rated #2 in this field (64.0)Race-fit — ran 10 days ago

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 3

BLUE CELESTIAL

OR 58 · Silvestre De Sousa / James Tate

MARKET 2.68 · the market rates it a 37% chance

60 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−Rated #3 in this field (60)

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1POSITIVE THOUGHTS (IRE)net +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, energy in the winning band, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot

2BLUE CELESTIALnet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup

3CASE STUDYnet +5figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here, yard hot

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK

Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. POSITIVE THOUGHTS (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge CASE STUDY lacks: in form.

Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.

Worth A Second Look

These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.

CY TWOMBLY (IRE) FIGURE #11

John Mackie's runners in Class 6-7 company win 15.2% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. John Mackie's runners on the all-weather win 15.5% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

WHAT WINS THIS RACE

16 similar races at WOLVERHAMPTON, 8.2-9.2f, all-aged handicaps, Class 5-7, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)

Winners here typically raced recently (82% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (65% from the first three favourites). 6% won last time out, 24% were placed 2nd-3rd.

Age

47% 3yo

24% 4yo

18% 5yo

Last ran

53% 15-45d

29% within 14d

18% 46-90d

Market

41% favourite

35% 4th+ in the market

18% 2nd favourite

LTO form

71% unplaced last time

24% placed last time

6% won last time

The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.

Where the pace is drawn · 10 runners · stalls 1–11

1234567891011

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn HIGH (early types average stall 11.0 of 11, field average 5.6).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

CY TWOMBLY (IRE) MID 50.5% 98.4 held up without the late gear (9th of 10 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

POSITIVE THOUGHTS (IRE) MID 48.6% 102.7 the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

ESDAILE MID 49.9% 101.7 solid late gains (5th of 10 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

SECONDS COUNT MID 50.3% 101.2 solid late gains (6th of 10 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

BLUE CELESTIAL MID 48.8% 102.8 the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

CASE STUDY MID 49.6% 100.4 one-paced late — 7th of 10 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

ICONIC DAWN PROMINENT 50.4% 99.2 the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late

STARBORN (IRE) MID 49.5% 102.0 solid late gains (4th of 10 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

SUNSHINE AND ROSES MID 48.6% 102.4 the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

ERNIE MCCREW (IRE) MID 51.1% 96.7 held up without the late gear (10th of 10 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

The early fight · measured

Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.

ICONIC DAWNPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.11s off the field’s best

ICONIC DAWN is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 CASE STUDY MID

DRAW 5 · OR 58 · Jack Callan / George Boughey

MARKET 10.5 · the market rates it a 10% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−

67.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

Top on the figures, 3pts clear of the next, sharp from the stalls; one-paced late — 7th of 10 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.

FormLab Figure

67.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 67

Official mark (OR)

58 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 2 tries

Days since last run

32

Sectional clock

Last time: 2.7s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 100.37% (one-paced late)

Headgear

First-time blinkers · yard 14% with first-time gear (A/E 0.9)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

10thClass 6 · 7.0f · rated —2ndClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 678thClass 5 · 8.0f · rated 525thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 445thClass 4 · 6.0f · rated 55

Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

George Boughey · 1373 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.2 on the exchange

Signature angle: over 9-10f trips

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 6-7 company ✦22/12917.1%0.854/3112.9%0.69

At this time of year (Q3)65/39616.4%1.075/2917.2%0.8

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 67 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand

The rider

Jack Callan · last 14 days: 3/26 · at Wolverhampton: A/E 1.18 (n54) · with this yard: A/E 1.16 (n122)

Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields5th of 10

-0.01 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.3 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 10

+0.05s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed7th of 10

100.4%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length3rd of 10

7.44 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

19 Jun 26Redcar7fGood10thTrue40.4 -0.3990.3+0.23

4 Jun 26Lingfield8fStd2ndSlow early39.8 +0.79108.0+0.02

15 May 26Newmarket8fGood8thTrue38.9 +0.0097.4+0.01

10 Oct 25Kempton Park6fStd/Fast5thTrue39.5 +0.00101.1+0.00

17 Sep 25Yarmouth6fSoft5thTrue38.5 -0.47105.0-0.02

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.37par2f+0.48par3f+0.48par4f+0.53par5f+1.04very slow6f+1.91very slow7f+4.72very slow

Timed runs 2025-09-17 to 2026-06-19. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

Read through a common rival

vs BLUE CELESTIAL (read through FALLACIOUS PROMISE, DARETOBEDIFFERENT) ≈ +4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs ERNIE MCCREW (IRE) (read through FALLACIOUS PROMISE, LAURASIA, RUIZ, WILD ROSIE) ≈ +0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

The top rating in this field (67.0)Improving fast — last run rated 67, 12pts above his recent average of 54.3Only 2 runs at this distanceHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“off pace, ridden over 2f out, never dangerous”

#2 POSITIVE THOUGHTS (IRE) MID

DRAW 6 · OR 60 · Jason Hart / John & Sean Quinn

MARKET 6.4 · the market rates it a 16% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 1−

64.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

2nd on the figures, 3pts off the top, in form; the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

64.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 66

Official mark (OR)

60 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 3 tries

Days since last run

10

Sectional clock

Last time: beat the class par by 0.8s · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 102.7% (holds late)

Headgear

First-time cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

3rdClass 6 · 8.3f · rated 645thClass 5 · 7.8f · rated 629thClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 566thClass 5 · 6.1f · rated 504thClass 2 · 7.1f · rated 59

Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

John & Sean Quinn · 782 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)28/27810.1%0.913/1816.7%1.78

In Class 6-7 company17/10915.6%1.338/3622.2%1.75

Coming back after 8 to 14 days11/1219.1%0.674/2218.2%1.73

In fields of 8-1129/3328.7%0.788/6911.6%1.35

On the all-weather18/14812.2%1.116/4613.0%1.22

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Over 7-8f trips25/2559.8%0.872/444.5%0.6

Too few runners to read reliably

At Wolverhampton (small sample)3/2512.0%1.380/20.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 70 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand

The rider

Jason Hart · last 14 days: 12/46 · at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.74 (n165) · with this yard: A/E 0.88 (n491)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields6th of 10

-0.03 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 10

+0.12s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed2nd of 10

102.7%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length6th of 10

7.24 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

11 Jul 26Hamilton Park8fGood3rdSlow early39.5 -0.31110.8+0.25

8 Jun 26Carlisle7fGd/Sft5thTrue38.2 +0.4795.0+0.12

26 May 26Redcar7fGd/Frm9thTrue40.4 -0.0899.5+0.08

25 Apr 26Southwell6fStd6thTrue39.3 -0.17101.3—

5 Nov 25Musselburgh7fSoft4thSlow early36.0 -0.44104.1+0.10

7 Oct 25Southwell7fStd2ndTrue38.5 +0.36105.5+0.06

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.48very slow2f+0.35very slow3f+0.33slow4f+0.36slow5f+0.39par6f+0.36very fast7f+0.33very fast1m+0.22very fast

Timed runs 2025-10-07 to 2026-07-11. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Rated #2 in this field (64.0)Only 3 runs at this distanceRace-fit — ran 10 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“off pace, outpaced 4f out, some late headway”

#3 BLUE CELESTIAL MID

DRAW 3 · OR 58 · Silvestre De Sousa / James Tate

MARKET 2.68 · the market rates it a 37% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 4−

60 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

3rd on the figures, 7pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

60 · ranked #3 here · career best 68

Official mark (OR)

58 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 7 tries

Days since last run

13

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield-closer · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 102.84% (holds late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

6thClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 583rdClass 4 · 9.5f · rated 634thClass 6 · 8.3f · rated 592ndClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 683rdClass 6 · 7.0f · rated 61

Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

James Tate · 550 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.3 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In Class 6-7 company1/205.0%0.442/1910.5%1.41

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At Wolverhampton11/4325.6%1.430/230.0%0.0

At this time of year (Q3)28/14419.4%1.221/195.3%0.4

On the all-weather52/21823.9%1.258/849.5%0.59

In fields of 8-1136/20717.4%1.1810/8312.0%0.84

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 65 is below the ~66.0 the race demands

The rider

Silvestre De Sousa · last 14 days: 2/13 · at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.86 (n74) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 10

+0.07 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 10

+0.07s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed1st of 10

102.8%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length10th of 10

6.85 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

8 Jul 26Kempton Park8fSlow6th—38.6 -0.04101.0+0.00—

28 Jun 26Wolverhampton9fStd3rdSlow early39.7 +0.16109.9-0.14

31 May 26Nottingham8fGood4thTrue39.2 -0.12103.1-0.01

20 May 26Kempton Park8fSlow2ndTrue38.6 -0.16102.3+0.19

30 Apr 26Kempton Park7fSlow3rdFast early38.3 +0.81101.1+0.20

11 Apr 26Yarmouth8fGood7thTrue39.1 -0.2199.6+0.20

Timed runs 2026-04-11 to 2026-07-08. · finishing speed for 4 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

SUNSHINE AND ROSES · 1 meeting≈ 2.6L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

28 Jun 26 · 9.5f · Std — finished 3rd vs 7th, 2.6L ahead

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+2.6L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs CASE STUDY (read through FALLACIOUS PROMISE, DARETOBEDIFFERENT) ≈ -4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs ICONIC DAWN (read through TORBADOS, SUPERSTORM, SPACEWOMAN) ≈ +4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Rated #3 in this field (60)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“mid-field, shaken up around 3f out, plugged on”

#4 SUNSHINE AND ROSES MID

DRAW 4 · OR 55 · George Bass / Jack Channon

MARKET 9.8 · the market rates it a 10% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−

58.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

4th on the figures, 9pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; a yard out of form.

FormLab Figure

58.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 65

Official mark (OR)

55 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 7 tries

Days since last run

23

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class
Usually races prominent

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 102.39% (holds late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

7thClass 4 · 9.5f · rated 5812thClass 6 · 8.1f · rated 374thClass 5 · 7.2f · rated 514thClass 5 · 7.2f · rated 569thClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 49

Career sheet · last 18 months · 11 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Jack Channon · 751 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.0 on the exchange

Signature angle: over 7-8f trips, when the yard has won in the last 3 days

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Over 7-8f trips ✦45/24118.7%1.3612/7715.6%1.24

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)31/23413.2%0.971/224.5%0.4

In Class 6-7 company13/8315.7%1.022/1910.5%0.52

On the all-weather32/15920.1%1.225/4910.2%0.74

Too few runners to read reliably

At Wolverhampton (small sample)9/4122.0%1.21/147.1%0.73

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 67 at/around today's trip, clears the ~66.0 demand

The rider

George Bass · last 14 days: 0/6 · at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.77 (n57) · with this yard: A/E 1.02 (n225)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 10

+0.09 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.8 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 10

+0.12s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed3rd of 10

102.4%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length8th of 10

7.12 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

28 Jun 26Wolverhampton9fStd7thSlow early39.4 -0.13109.6+0.02

25 May 26Windsor8fGd/Frm12thTrue38.8 -0.95100.8+0.25

22 Dec 25Wolverhampton7fSlow4thSlow early38.9 +0.62106.3+0.37

15 Dec 25Wolverhampton7fStd4thSlow early38.0 -0.36102.6+0.00

19 Nov 25Kempton Park8fStd9thFast early41.3 +1.3694.3+0.09

25 Oct 25Wolverhampton7fSlow3rdFast early39.0 +0.00100.7-0.01

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.38fast2f+0.48slow3f+0.57very slow4f+0.52very slow5f+0.47very slow6f+0.46slow7f+0.69fast1m+0.90very fast1m 1f+0.96fast

Timed runs 2025-10-25 to 2026-06-28. · 3 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

BLUE CELESTIAL · 1 meeting≈ 2.6L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

28 Jun 26 · 9.5f · Std — finished 7th vs 3rd, 2.6L behind

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-2.6L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs ERNIE MCCREW (IRE) (read through HENFIELD, BUCKLAND BELLE) ≈ -2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Drops in class todayImproving fast — last run rated 58, 9pts above his recent average of 48.7Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“off pace, ridden when came wide over 2f out, soon beaten”

#5 ESDAILE MID

DRAW 8 · OR 60 · Clifford Lee / James Tate

MARKET 23 · the market rates it a 4% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 5−

56.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

5th on the figures, 11pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; habitually slow from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

56.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 57

Official mark (OR)

60 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 1 tries

Days since last run

26

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.6s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races held-up (no impact)

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 101.7% (holds late)

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

5thClass 4 · 7.0f · rated 566thClass 4 · 8.0f · rated 5710thClass 4 · 7.0f · rated 43

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

James Tate · 550 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.3 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In Class 6-7 company1/205.0%0.442/1910.5%1.41

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At Wolverhampton11/4325.6%1.430/230.0%0.0

At this time of year (Q3)28/14419.4%1.221/195.3%0.4

On the all-weather52/21823.9%1.258/849.5%0.59

Coming back after 15 to 45 days39/17522.3%1.2811/8712.6%0.8

In fields of 8-1136/20717.4%1.1810/8312.0%0.84

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 57 is below the ~66.0 the race demands

The rider

Clifford Lee · last 14 days: 2/16 · at Wolverhampton: A/E 1.05 (n178) · with this yard: A/E 1.49 (n109)

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields8th of 10

-0.09 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph9th of 10

+0.38s

Slow away in 2 of 3 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed5th of 10

101.7%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length1st of 10

7.64 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

25 Jun 26Newmarket7fGd/Frm5thSlow early39.8 -0.18100.4+0.25

18 Jun 26Yarmouth8fGd/Frm6thTrue39.2 +0.31105.0+0.50

10 Jun 26Yarmouth7fGd/Sft10thSlow early38.6 -0.4199.7+0.38

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.23par2f+0.22slow3f+0.19slow4f+0.29slow5f+0.43par6f+0.43par7f+1.43slow

Timed runs 2026-06-10 to 2026-06-25. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

ALL-WEATHER UNPROVEN — 0 AW runs; today is the AW. Figures are turf formDrops in class todayOnly 1 run at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina question

LTO comment

“waited with, effort 2f out, left behind final 1f”

#6 SECONDS COUNT MID FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 2 · OR 49 · Jack Doughty / Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole

MARKET backed 34 → 21 · the market rates it a 5% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−

51.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

7th on the figures, 16pts off the top, backed since the morning; habitually slow from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

51.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 59

Official mark (OR)

49 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 9 tries

Days since last run

15

Sectional clock

Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 101.22% (holds late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

6thClass 6 · 8.6f · rated 519thClass 6 · 8.1f · rated 294thClass 6 · 8.6f · rated 509thClass 6 · 9.5f · rated 264thClass 6 · 8.6f · rated 58

Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole · 712 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At Wolverhampton9/7811.5%1.073/417.3%0.55

Coming back after 15 to 45 days27/25810.5%1.037/1156.1%0.55

In Class 6-7 company10/8911.2%1.063/427.1%0.57

Over 7-8f trips30/28810.4%1.18/978.2%0.71

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 61 is below the ~66.0 the race demands

The rider

Jack Doughty · last 14 days: 0/22 · at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.88 (n255) · with this yard: A/E 0.66 (n64)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields1st of 10

+0.24 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 39.3 raw

Break · 0-20mph10th of 10

+0.38s

Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed6th of 10

101.2%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length9th of 10

7.11 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

6 Jul 26Wolverhampton8fStd6thTrue39.0 +1.26106.8+0.53

15 Jun 26Chepstow8fGood9thTrue41.9 -0.8693.1+0.05

1 Jun 26Wolverhampton8fStd4thTrue38.1 +0.41103.6+0.26

26 Dec 25Wolverhampton9fSlow9thTrue37.5 -0.0596.0-0.04

6 Oct 25Wolverhampton8fStd4thFast early39.6 +0.74101.2+0.46

13 Sep 25Lingfield8fStd6thTrue39.6 -0.03106.7+1.04

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.66slow2f+1.30very slow3f+1.53very slow4f+1.28par5f+1.01fast6f+1.01fast7f+1.06par1m+0.83fast1m 1f+0.74fast

Timed runs 2025-09-13 to 2026-07-06. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Lost roughly 2.4 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“led briefly early, stayed prominent, dropped away from 2f out”

#7 ERNIE MCCREW (IRE) MID

DRAW 7 · OR 52 · Donagh Murphy / J. S. Moore

MARKET 26 · the market rates it a 4% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 6−

51.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

8th on the figures, 16pts off the top, fit and race-ready; tends to burn early and empty out.

FormLab Figure

51.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 54

Official mark (OR)

52 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 4 tries

Days since last run

15

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.3s slower than par — the result flattered it · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 96.66% (one-paced late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

4thClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 517thClass 6 · 8.1f · rated 116thClass 4 · 7.6f · rated 114thClass 5 · 7.0f · rated 526thClass 5 · 7.2f · rated 54

Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

J. S. Moore · 520 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.7 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At Wolverhampton8/7910.1%1.282/1811.1%1.77

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)10/1546.5%0.820/170.0%0.0

In fields of 8-1117/2008.5%1.130/600.0%0.0

In Class 6-7 company12/1996.0%0.631/362.8%0.33

Over 7-8f trips15/1768.5%1.181/333.0%0.48

Coming back after 15 to 45 days16/15710.2%1.212/474.3%0.57

On the all-weather15/1897.9%1.02/424.8%0.72

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 52 is below the ~66.0 the race demands

The rider

Donagh Murphy · last 14 days: 0/11 · at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.79 (n29) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n4)

Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields4th of 10

+0.05 mph

About the level of its fields · 40.4 raw

Break · 0-20mph8th of 10

+0.21s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed10th of 10

96.7%

One-paced late

Stride length2nd of 10

7.52 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

6 Jul 26Lingfield8fStd/Slow4thTrue38.7 -0.30100.2+0.04

3 Jul 26Chepstow8fGd/Frm7thTrue42.1 -0.3191.3+0.25

6 Jun 26Lingfield7fSoft6thTrue39.2 +0.0090.4+0.13

19 May 26Lingfield7fGood4thTrue40.0 +0.5797.0+0.11

27 Apr 26Wolverhampton7fStd6thTrue39.0 +0.29104.4+0.50

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.21fast2f+0.51slow3f+0.64par4f+0.81fast5f+0.66par6f+0.77slow7f+0.97very slow1m+1.17very slow

Timed runs 2026-04-27 to 2026-07-06. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

OCEAN FORCE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 7.5L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

19 May 26 · 7f · Good — finished 4th vs 5th, 7.5L ahead

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+7.5L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs SUNSHINE AND ROSES (read through HENFIELD, BUCKLAND BELLE) ≈ +2.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs CASE STUDY (read through FALLACIOUS PROMISE, LAURASIA, RUIZ, WILD ROSIE) ≈ -0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Improving fast — last run rated 51, 26pts above his recent average of 24.3Only 4 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“held up, ridden over 1f out, some late headway”

#8 ICONIC DAWN PROMINENT

DRAW 11 · OR 57 · David Probert / Hughie Morrison

MARKET 23 · the market rates it a 4% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−

46.3 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

9th on the figures, 20.7pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — but holds one pace late.

FormLab Figure

46.3 · ranked #9 here · career best 59

Official mark (OR)

57 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

untried at this distance

Days since last run

59

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.6s slower than par — the result flattered it
Usually races prominent and weakens

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 99.2% (one-paced late)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

11thClass 5 · 7.0f · rated 3514thClass 5 · 7.0f · rated 465thClass 5 · 6.1f · rated 583rdClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 5910thClass 4 · 7.0f · rated 26

Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Hughie Morrison · 426 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.7 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Over 7-8f trips7/1146.1%0.623/2114.3%2.24

In fields of 8-1117/1729.9%0.815/3215.6%1.88

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At Wolverhampton3/2711.1%0.720/90.0%0.0

At this time of year (Q3)18/14312.6%0.890/110.0%0.0

On the all-weather15/1639.2%0.761/323.1%0.39

In Class 6-7 company10/8212.2%0.841/911.1%0.85

Too few runners to read reliably

Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)3/339.1%0.551/616.7%1.49

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 58 is below the ~66.0 the race demands

The rider

David Probert · last 14 days: 8/43 · at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.96 (n287) · with this yard: A/E 1.31 (n40)

Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields9th of 10

-0.09 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.6 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 10

+0.11s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed8th of 10

99.2%

One-paced late

Stride length7th of 10

7.16 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

23 May 26Salisbury6fGood11th—37.8 -0.2895.0+0.21

14 Oct 25Lingfield7fStd14thTrue41.1 -0.0197.3+0.15

16 Sep 25Wolverhampton6fSlow5thTrue39.5 -0.41102.7-0.09

3 Sep 25Lingfield6fStd3rdTrue41.0 +0.29102.1+0.18

5 Aug 25Newbury7fGd/Frm10thSlow early38.8 -0.0598.9+0.11

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.59 2f+0.77 3f+0.93 4f+1.21 5f+0.86 6f+0.92 7f+2.09

Timed runs 2025-08-05 to 2026-05-23. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

Read through a common rival

vs BLUE CELESTIAL (read through TORBADOS, SUPERSTORM, SPACEWOMAN) ≈ -4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Drops in class todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“waited with, pushed along before halfway, switched over 2f out, weakened inside final 1f”

#9 STARBORN (IRE) MID

DRAW 1 · OR 57 · Cieren Fallon / Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole

MARKET 13 · the market rates it a 8% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−

42 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

10th on the figures, 25pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; solid late gains (4th of 10 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

42 · ranked #10 here · career best 54

Official mark (OR)

57 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

untried at this distance

Days since last run

49

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s)
Usually races midfield and fades

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 102.04% (holds late)

Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

7thClass 5 · 6.1f · rated 338thClass 5 · 7.0f · rated 549thClass 5 · 6.0f · rated 39

Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole · 712 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At Wolverhampton9/7811.5%1.073/417.3%0.55

In Class 6-7 company10/8911.2%1.063/427.1%0.57

Over 7-8f trips30/28810.4%1.18/978.2%0.71

Too few runners to read reliably

Coming back after 46 to 90 days (small sample)1/352.9%0.391/714.3%1.35

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 56 is below the ~66.0 the race demands

The rider

Cieren Fallon · last 14 days: 5/31 · at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.71 (n179) · with this yard: A/E 1.48 (n11)

Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields10th of 10

-0.20 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 39.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 10

+0.14s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed4th of 10

102.0%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length5th of 10

7.27 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

2 Jun 26Wolverhampton6fStd7thTrue39.2 -0.58105.9+0.10

6 May 26Kempton Park7fSlow8thTrue38.5 -0.25102.4+0.21

18 Jul 25Haydock Park6fGood9thTrue39.4 +0.2397.8+0.10

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.52slow2f+0.79very slow3f+0.89very slow4f+1.11par5f+1.49fast6f+1.97fast

Timed runs 2025-07-18 to 2026-06-02. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Drops in class today

LTO comment

“mid-field, outpaced under 3f out, no impression”

#10 CY TWOMBLY (IRE) MID FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 9 · OR 60 · P. J. McDonald / John Mackie

MARKET 50 · the market rates it a 2% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−

39.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

11th on the figures, 27.3pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; tends to burn early and empty out.

FormLab Figure

39.7 · ranked #11 here · career best 59

Official mark (OR)

60 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 3 tries

Days since last run

33

Sectional clock

Last time: 1.6s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent and weakens

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 98.42% (one-paced late)

Headgear

First-time cheekpieces and tongue strap

Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

8thClass 5 · 7.1f · rated 399thClass 4 · 8.6f · rated 4011thClass 5 · 8.1f · rated 406thClass 5 · 8.1f · rated 59

Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

John Mackie · 236 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.1 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Over 7-8f trips ✦8/8010.0%1.349/4818.8%1.47

On the all-weather ✦11/1119.9%1.29/5815.5%1.27

Coming back after 15 to 45 days9/6913.0%1.715/3813.2%1.26

At Wolverhampton3/407.5%0.934/2416.7%1.18

Too few runners to read reliably

At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)3/417.3%1.430/30.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 62 is below the ~66.0 the race demands

The rider

P. J. McDonald · last 14 days: 5/22 · at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.79 (n98) · with this yard: A/E 1.4 (n44)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields7th of 10

-0.07 mph

About the level of its fields · 38.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph7th of 10

+0.17s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed9th of 10

98.4%

One-paced late

Stride length4th of 10

7.32 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

18 Jun 26Southwell7fStd8thTrue38.8 -0.2397.6+0.41

1 Jun 26Wolverhampton8fStd9thTrue38.7 +0.0097.5+0.07

30 Jan 26Southwell8fStd11thFast early37.4 -0.9193.7+0.05

28 Dec 25Southwell8fStd6thTrue38.2 -0.0298.0+0.17

21 Nov 24Southwell8fStandard4thTrue38.6 +0.72100.5+0.10

31 Oct 24Chelmsford City7fStandard5thTrue39.1 +0.00103.3+0.20

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.59par2f+0.67par3f+0.81par4f+0.41par5f+0.24par6f+0.78slow7f+2.02very slow

Timed runs 2024-10-31 to 2026-06-18. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Drops in class todayOnly 3 runs at this distanceLost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“mid-field, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out”