THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.2%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.1%192 races · latest settled day: #1 4/16, top-3 9/16forensic read: #1 27.7% · top-3 63% (119)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (87% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (73% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 49% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, MASSIMO BLUE leads on 74, 7pts clear of MASTER DANDY (IRE) — among the two fastest on speed against its past fields. The case against the top pick: rated well above the mark it last won from. The shape danger is WATERMELON SUGAR (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes MASSIMO BLUE the 22% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 8
MASSIMO BLUE
OR 65 · Jack Callan / George Baker
MARKET 4.5 · the market rates it a 22% chance
74.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (74.0)Proven over the trip (14 tries, beats market expectation at 1.34)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 10
MASTER DANDY (IRE)
OR 58 · Cieren Fallon / Michael Keady
MARKET 14.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance
67.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−AW-PROVEN — 3/26 on the all-weatherProven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (67.0)A course winner (1 from 7 here)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
LANDLORDTOTHESTARS (IRE)
OR 63 · Joe Leavy / James Evans
MARKET 10.5 · the market rates it a 9% chance
61.3FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−AW-PROVEN — 3/14 on the all-weatherProven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (61.3)Proven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 1.65)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1MASSIMO BLUEnet +9figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, proven at trip − 5lb+ above last winning mark
2NEVER DARKnet +8drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), quickest early type, sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip, proven on the going, yard positive in today’s setup − burns early and empties
3BRAVE EMPIRE (IRE)net +6drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, yard positive in today’s setup, yard hot
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
MASSIMO BLUE carries rated well above the mark it last won from. NEVER DARK is the one to beat it — an edge MASSIMO BLUE lacks: the quickest away of the early types.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
BRAVE EMPIRE (IRE) FIGURE #5
drops in class and returns quickly — the two angles our testing shows genuinely tighten a profile.
NEVER DARK FIGURE #8
Iain Jardine's runners in Class 6-7 company win 20.0% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Iain Jardine's runners dropping in class win 13.2% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
WATERMELON SUGAR (IRE) FIGURE #10
Chelsea Banham's runners in Class 6-7 company win 22.6% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Chelsea Banham's runners on the all-weather win 22.4% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (4 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
15 similar races at WOLVERHAMPTON, 5.6-6.6f, all-aged handicaps, Class 6, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026
Winners here typically raced recently (87% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (73% from the first three favourites). 27% won last time out, 40% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
53% 4yo
27% 6yo+
13% 5yo
Last ran
47% within 14d
40% 15-45d
13% 46-90d
Market
47% favourite
27% 4th+ in the market
27% 3rd favourite
LTO form
40% placed last time
33% unplaced last time
27% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 11 runners · stalls 1–12
123456789101112
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–12).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
MASSIMO BLUEHELD-UP48.7%101.2solid late gains (4th of 11 on late speed here), races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
LANDLORDTOTHESTARS (IRE)MID48.6%100.2one-paced late — 7th of 11 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
BLUE LANCEROHELD-UP49.7%100.9solid late gains (5th of 11 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
NEVER DARKFRONT52.0%95.7the quickest of today's early types, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
WATERMELON SUGAR (IRE)MID48.7%104.6the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
MASTER DANDY (IRE)PROMINENT49.7%97.5concedes ~2.0L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
CRYSTAL DAGGERPROMINENT50.0%100.5concedes ~2.1L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls
AUNTIE JOHELD-UP49.7%101.3the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
BRAVE EMPIRE (IRE)HELD-UP49.7%101.5the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
CANDY WARHOL (USA)FRONT50.8%97.8just behind the quickest early pair — presses, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f · sharp from the stalls
WHITE UMBRELLAHELD-UP50.0%97.4held up without the late gear (10th of 11 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
NEVER DARKFRONTtypically ~3 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
CANDY WARHOL (USA)FRONTtypically ~2.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
MASTER DANDY (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
CRYSTAL DAGGERPROMINENTa shade quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1MASSIMO BLUEHELD-UP
DRAW 8 · OR 65 · Jack Callan / George Baker
MARKET 4.5 · the market rates it a 22% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−
74.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 7pts clear of the next, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; rated well above the mark it last won from.
FormLab Figure
74.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
65 · last won off 60
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 14 tries · beats market expectation (1.34)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 101.2% (holds late)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces and tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
George Baker · 408 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 9.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 6-7 company12/6618.2%1.372/1020.0%1.81
Above their last winning mark15/8916.9%1.293/1915.8%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)13/1488.8%1.070/150.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days13/1697.7%0.91/273.7%0.38
Over 5-6f trips12/10311.7%1.341/234.3%0.51
Too few runners to read reliably
At Wolverhampton (small sample)3/742.9%3.170/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 75 at/around today's trip, clears the ~74.0 demand
The rider
Jack Callan · last 14 days: 3/26· at Wolverhampton: A/E 1.18 (n54)· with this yard: A/E 0.9 (n15)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 11
+0.41 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 11
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 11
101.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length4th of 11
7.48 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-10-16 to 2026-07-02. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
18 Oct 25 · 6.1f · Slow — finished 2nd vs 10th, 7.9L ahead
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (+7.7L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs LANDLORDTOTHESTARS (IRE) (read through SECRET ROAD, AMELIA'S JOY, SERENITY DREAM) ≈ +5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs BRAVE EMPIRE (IRE) (read through MUMAYAZ, BLACKJACK, I NEED YOUR LOVE, AMERJEET) ≈ -3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs WHITE UMBRELLA (read through TRAVEL AGENT, BINT HAVANA GOLD, STYLE KING, DARN HOT TIME) ≈ -3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs BLUE LANCERO (read through STYLE KING, SHALAA ASKER) ≈ +3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (65 today vs 60)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayThe top rating in this field (74.0)Improving fast — last run rated 74, 8pts above his recent average of 65.7Proven over the trip (14 tries, beats market expectation at 1.34)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“close up, led over 1f out, edged left final 1f, headed final 100 yds, no extra late on”
#2MASTER DANDY (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 10 · OR 58 · Cieren Fallon / Michael Keady
MARKET 14.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 2−
67.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 7pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
67.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
58 · last won off 57
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 29 tries · below market expectation (0.82)
Days since last run
23
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent and weakens
Career sheet · last 18 months · 21 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael Keady · 355 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 6-7 company8/1326.1%0.715/4012.5%1.36
Over 5-6f trips11/1427.7%0.944/3910.3%1.31
On the all-weather10/1626.2%0.725/4910.2%1.21
In fields of 12-151/541.9%0.331/185.6%1.21
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)4/834.8%0.810/90.0%0.0
At Wolverhampton1/372.7%0.261/156.7%0.8
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 77 at/around today's trip, clears the ~74.0 demand
The rider
Cieren Fallon · last 14 days: 5/31· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.71 (n179)· with this yard: A/E 1.3 (n13)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 11
+0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.9 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 11
+0.02s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed9th of 11
97.5%
One-paced late
Stride length8th of 11
7.28 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
28 Jun 26Wolverhampton6fStd3rdTrue40.7 +0.1599.0+0.02
16 May 26Thirsk6fGood16thFast early41.0 -0.4186.5+0.01
WHITE UMBRELLA · 1 meeting≈ 4.0L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
28 Jun 26 · 6.1f · Std — finished 3rd vs 8th, 5.55L ahead
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 4 rival(s) met (+3.3L adj, 4 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs BRAVE EMPIRE (IRE) (read through MUMAYAZ, LUCKY MAN, EARLY RELEASE, GANESHA) ≈ -5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs LANDLORDTOTHESTARS (IRE) (read through MY MATE MIKE, LUCKY MAN, NEWFANGLED, DAISY ROOTS) ≈ -3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CRYSTAL DAGGER (read through DAYTONA LADY, HAVANA SKY, PENELOPE VALENTINE, LUCKY MAN) ≈ -2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MASSIMO BLUE (read through COURT OF SESSION, VITALLINE, BRAVE BOB, ALAFDHAL) ≈ +0.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
AW-PROVEN — 3/26 on the all-weatherProven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (67.0)Improving fast — last run rated 67, 19pts above his recent average of 47.7Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 7 here)Runs Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, weakened from 2f out”
#3LANDLORDTOTHESTARS (IRE)MID
DRAW 2 · OR 63 · Joe Leavy / James Evans
MARKET 10.5 · the market rates it a 9% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 4−
61.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 12.7pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; its sectional profile is out of date.
FormLab Figure
61.3 · ranked #3 here · career best 75
Official mark (OR)
63 · last won off 63
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 8 tries · beats market expectation (1.65)
Days since last run
126
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) Usually races prominent
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads. · last rated run 126 days ago
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
James Evans · 202 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Back at their last winning mark1/616.7%1.68—
Over 5-6f trips5/4211.9%1.171/714.3%1.53
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of 12-154/449.1%1.330/60.0%0.0
In Class 6-7 company12/6917.4%1.611/254.0%0.34
On the all-weather16/10115.8%1.622/277.4%0.65
At Wolverhampton8/5514.5%1.51/137.7%0.77
Too few runners to read reliably
Coming back after 91 to 180 days (small sample)2/922.2%1.991/250.0%13.82
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)5/5010.0%1.390/10.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 75 at/around today's trip, clears the ~74.0 demand
The rider
Joe Leavy · last 14 days: 2/28· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.77 (n153)· with this yard: A/E 1.58 (n102)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields10th of 11
-0.23 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 11
+0.15s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed7th of 11
100.2%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 11
7.55 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Mar 26Wolverhampton7fStd7thFast early39.5 -0.1598.4+0.10
3 Mar 26Wolverhampton7fStd9thSlow early39.2 -0.29103.8+0.16
5 Feb 26Southwell7fStd5thTrue38.1 -0.1998.1+0.02
2 Jan 26Wolverhampton7fStd2ndTrue38.4 -0.04103.2+0.07
29 Nov 25Wolverhampton7fSlow1stTrue39.9 -0.06100.1+0.25
24 May 25Windsor8fGood7thTrue37.7 -0.6597.6+0.28
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-05-24 to 2026-03-17 · last timed run 126 days ago — the profile is out of date. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
17 Mar 26 · 7.2f · Std — finished 7th vs 8th, 2.5L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — line-ball vs 1 rival(s) met (+0.1L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs CANDY WARHOL (USA) (read through BUNGLE BAY, RIVER WHARFE) ≈ +5.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MASSIMO BLUE (read through SECRET ROAD, AMELIA'S JOY, SERENITY DREAM) ≈ -5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs WATERMELON SUGAR (IRE) (read through SECRET ROAD, MY MATE MIKE, BOMB SQUAD, ARNAZ) ≈ +4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs WHITE UMBRELLA (read through GOOD KARMA, PUNCHBOWL FLYER, AL HOFZAN, BOMB SQUAD) ≈ -4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
AW-PROVEN — 3/14 on the all-weatherProven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (61.3)Proven over the trip (8 tries, beats market expectation at 1.65)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 6 here)Sectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“always behind”
#4AUNTIE JOHELD-UP
DRAW 3 · OR 55 · Sean Dylan Bowen / Katie Scott
MARKET 28 · the market rates it a 4% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−
61.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 13pts off the top, in form; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
61.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 65
Official mark (OR)
55 · last won off 50
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 25 tries · below market expectation (0.89)
Days since last run
21
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 101.27% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 20 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Katie Scott · 495 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: off a steady mark, with their 4yo+s
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)8/1346.0%0.62/1513.3%1.72
Over 5-6f trips17/1918.9%0.825/539.4%1.56
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On the all-weather11/1497.4%0.810/310.0%0.0
In Class 6-7 company17/2098.1%0.881/452.2%0.33
Above their last winning mark7/907.8%0.522/395.1%0.58
Too few runners to read reliably
At Wolverhampton (small sample)1/303.3%0.40/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 66 is below the ~74.0 the race demands
The rider
Sean Dylan Bowen · last 14 days: 1/14· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.8 (n131)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 11
+0.04 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph10th of 11
+0.34s
Slow away in 2 of 3 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed3rd of 11
101.3%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 11
7.66 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 Jun 26Musselburgh5fGd/Frm3rdTrue—100.9—
20 Jun 26Ayr5fSoft5thTrue41.4 -0.07101.6+0.40
2 Jun 26Newcastle5fStd1stTrue41.9 +0.00100.8—
26 May 26Redcar5fGd/Frm2ndTrue42.8 +0.19102.0+0.50
7 May 26Redcar5fGood9thTrue41.1 -0.4599.8+0.13
24 Apr 26Doncaster5fGd/Frm4thTrue41.9 +0.51102.5—
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2026-04-24 to 2026-06-30. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 3 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
1 Jan 26 · 6f · Std — finished 4th vs 9th, 5.5L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+6.3L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs BRAVE EMPIRE (IRE) (read through ASADJUMEIRAH, SEDGEMOOR, CANARIA SUN, HURSTWOOD) ≈ -3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CANDY WARHOL (USA) (read through STREET LIFE, NAZCA, ASADJUMEIRAH, HENERY HAWK) ≈ -3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs NEVER DARK (read through STREET LIFE, ROYAL DUKE, INVINCIBLE ANNICE, SIXCOR) ≈ -2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs WATERMELON SUGAR (IRE) (read through WORLD OF DARCY, TEARDROPS, WOODHAY WHISPER, OKAMI) ≈ +0.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
5lb above his last winning mark (55 today vs 50)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayLost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“mid-field, ridden and headway wide 2f out, challenged final 1f, weakened late on”
#5BRAVE EMPIRE (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 12 · OR 55 · Silvestre De Sousa / Ivan Furtado
MARKET 6.4 · the market rates it a 15% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 3−
55FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 19pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
55 · ranked #5 here · career best 95
Official mark (OR)
55 · last won off 94
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 26 tries · in line with the market (0.99)
Days since last run
14
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class Usually races held-up (one-paced)
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 101.52% (holds late)
Headgear
First-time hood
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Ivan Furtado · 957 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.4 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips8/1944.1%0.6112/9812.2%1.53
At Wolverhampton7/927.6%0.936/3815.8%1.25
At this time of year (Q3)22/19311.4%1.35/3813.2%1.18
In fields of 12-1512/1478.2%1.344/586.9%1.18
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 8 to 14 days19/13314.3%1.442/513.9%0.41
Below their last winning mark2/523.8%0.51/293.4%0.41
In Class 6-7 company37/28313.1%1.419/1197.6%0.77
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 95 at/around today's trip, clears the ~74.0 demand
The rider
Silvestre De Sousa · last 14 days: 2/13· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.86 (n74)· with this yard: A/E 0.88 (n45)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 11
+0.00 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph9th of 11
+0.28s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 11
101.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length7th of 11
7.33 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-03-10 to 2026-07-07. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
6 Jun 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 7th, 4.95L ahead
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 2 rival(s) met (+0.7L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs WATERMELON SUGAR (IRE) (read through BLUE FORCE, BILL PLUMB, WODAO, AMERJEET) ≈ +5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MASTER DANDY (IRE) (read through MUMAYAZ, LUCKY MAN, EARLY RELEASE, GANESHA) ≈ +5.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs NEVER DARK (read through WATER OF LEITH, DANDY MAGIC, ARNHEM, MONKS DREAM) ≈ +3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MASSIMO BLUE (read through MUMAYAZ, BLACKJACK, I NEED YOUR LOVE, AMERJEET) ≈ +3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
39lb below his last winning mark (55 today vs 94)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayStable in form this week — 4 wins from 12 runsHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“slowly away, always behind”
#6WHITE UMBRELLAHELD-UP
DRAW 1 · OR 54 · Christian Howarth / Christopher Kellett
MARKET 13.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
54.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 19.7pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
54.3 · ranked #6 here · career best 74
Official mark (OR)
54 · last won off 61
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 26 tries · beats market expectation (1.44)
Days since last run
23
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.2s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 97.41% (one-paced late)
Headgear
First-time blinkers
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Christopher Kellett · 108 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.2 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Wolverhampton3/1323.1%2.210/90.0%0.0
Over 5-6f trips2/2010.0%1.180/80.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days2/454.4%0.490/120.0%0.0
On the all-weather4/1625.0%2.340/110.0%0.0
In fields of 12-151/156.7%0.770/90.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
Below their last winning mark (small sample)2/1020.0%2.340/30.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)4/3910.3%1.340/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 74 at/around today's trip, clears the ~74.0 demand
The rider
Christian Howarth · last 14 days: 1/10· at Wolverhampton: A/E 1.12 (n69)· with this yard: A/E 2.36 (n5)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 11
+0.10 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 11
+0.16s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed10th of 11
97.4%
One-paced late
Stride length11th of 11
6.98 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
28 Jun 26Wolverhampton6fStd8thTrue40.7 +0.1596.4+0.06
11 May 26Catterick Bridge7fGood13thFast early41.6 +0.0084.1+0.08
28 Jun 26 · 6.1f · Std — finished 8th vs 3rd, 5.55L behind
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-4.0L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs LANDLORDTOTHESTARS (IRE) (read through GOOD KARMA, PUNCHBOWL FLYER, AL HOFZAN, BOMB SQUAD) ≈ +4.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MASSIMO BLUE (read through TRAVEL AGENT, BINT HAVANA GOLD, STYLE KING, DARN HOT TIME) ≈ +3.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs WATERMELON SUGAR (IRE) (read through TWILIGHT MADNESS, TRAVEL AGENT, WOODHAY WHISPER, TEARDROPS) ≈ +2.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CRYSTAL DAGGER (read through RUBY RED GOVE, PUNCHBOWL FLYER, HOW IMPRESSIVE, BOMB SQUAD) ≈ +2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
AW-PROVEN — 3/15 on the all-weather7lb below his last winning mark (54 today vs 61)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayProven over the trip (26 tries, beats market expectation at 1.44)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (3 from 14 here)
LTO comment
“tracked pace, ridden 3f out, weakened 2f out”
#7CANDY WARHOL (USA)FRONT
DRAW 9 · OR 54 · Kieran O'Neill / Scott Dixon
MARKET 5.9 · the market rates it a 16% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 2+ / 3−
54.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 20pts off the top, ahead of the rivals it has met on collateral form; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
54.0 · ranked #7 here · career best 78
Official mark (OR)
54 · last won off 59
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 32 tries · below market expectation (0.76)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s) Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 25 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Scott Dixon · 1052 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 9.1 on the exchange
Signature angle: off marks in the 61 to 75 range, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Wolverhampton15/2715.5%0.849/8310.8%1.42
On the all-weather33/5765.7%0.9516/1888.5%1.23
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Below their last winning mark10/9610.4%1.431/472.1%0.4
Coming back after 15 to 45 days19/2826.7%1.053/943.2%0.52
In Class 6-7 company ✦35/4797.3%0.987/1494.7%0.74
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)14/1957.2%1.073/1915.8%1.26
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 78 at/around today's trip, clears the ~74.0 demand
The rider
Kieran O'Neill · last 14 days: 1/13· at Wolverhampton: A/E 1.14 (n376)· with this yard: A/E 1.34 (n339)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields9th of 11
-0.17 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 41.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 11
-0.00s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 5 of 6
Finish · closing speed8th of 11
97.8%
One-paced late
Stride length10th of 11
7.16 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
6 Jun 26 · 6f · Gd/Frm — finished 7th vs 4th, 4.95L behind
Read through a common rival
vs LANDLORDTOTHESTARS (IRE) (read through BUNGLE BAY, RIVER WHARFE) ≈ -5.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs BLUE LANCERO (read through SHALAA ASKER, STYLE KING, LEVEL UP) ≈ +5.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs NEVER DARK (read through PHOENIX BEACH, LEVEL UP, JOJO RABBIT, BRAZILIAN BELLE) ≈ +4.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs AUNTIE JO (read through STREET LIFE, NAZCA, ASADJUMEIRAH, HENERY HAWK) ≈ +3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
AW-PROVEN — 3/30 on the all-weather5lb below his last winning mark (54 today vs 59)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (3 from 22 here)Runs Front — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, headed under 2f out, weakened”
#8NEVER DARKFRONT
DRAW 6 · OR 60 · Clifford Lee / Iain Jardine
MARKET 9.6 · the market rates it a 10% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 6+ / 1−
53.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 21pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
53.0 · ranked #8 here · career best 88
Official mark (OR)
60 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance
3 wins from 28 tries · beats market expectation (1.71)
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.0s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Iain Jardine · 1193 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Andrew Mullen, off marks of 60 or below, over an unchanged trip, with the retained rider up
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips33/3659.0%0.9420/10519.0%1.74
In Class 6-7 company ✦50/35214.2%1.1726/13020.0%1.44
In fields of 12-1516/1918.4%1.185/4211.9%1.43
On the all-weather ✦34/30911.0%1.0318/11815.3%1.36
Coming back after 15 to 45 days31/4167.5%0.8116/13611.8%1.27
At this time of year (Q3)38/3889.8%0.996/3616.7%1.16
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At Wolverhampton3/368.3%0.763/2015.0%0.84
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 88 at/around today's trip, clears the ~74.0 demand
The rider
Clifford Lee · last 14 days: 2/16· at Wolverhampton: A/E 1.05 (n178)· with this yard: A/E 1.14 (n14)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 11
+0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 11
-0.02s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 4 of 6
Finish · closing speed11th of 11
95.7%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 11
7.61 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
5 Jul 26Ayr5fGood6thTrue42.6 -0.4498.9+0.00
17 Oct 25Haydock Park5fGd/Sft7thTrue39.8 -0.1495.9+0.02
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1fledpar2fledpar3fledpar4f+0.29slow5f+0.91slow
Timed runs 2025-09-06 to 2026-07-05. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs WATERMELON SUGAR (IRE) (read through TRAVEL AGENT, PHOENIX BEACH, LEVEL UP, JOJO RABBIT) ≈ +4.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CANDY WARHOL (USA) (read through PHOENIX BEACH, LEVEL UP, JOJO RABBIT, BRAZILIAN BELLE) ≈ -4.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs BRAVE EMPIRE (IRE) (read through WATER OF LEITH, DANDY MAGIC, ARNHEM, MONKS DREAM) ≈ -3.8L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MASSIMO BLUE (read through TRAVEL AGENT, LUCIUS AURELIUS) ≈ +3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
15lb below his last winning mark (60 today vs 75)Proven at this level — a Class 3 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayImproving fast — last run rated 53, 9pts above his recent average of 44.0Proven over the trip (28 tries, beats market expectation at 1.71)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 3 here)
LTO comment
“pressed leader, ridden over 1f out, weakened”
#9CRYSTAL DAGGERPROMINENT
DRAW 5 · OR 57 · T. Kiely-Marshall / Joey Ramsden
MARKET 46 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 7−
52.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
9th on the figures, 22pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; concedes ~2.1L early to the quickest — a presser, not the leader, and spends more than winners here do — and holds on late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
52.0 · ranked #9 here · career best 71
Official mark (OR)
57 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 11 tries
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.4s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races prominent and weakens
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 100.52% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Joey Ramsden · 161 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips1/147.1%1.861/621.6%0.17
Coming back after 15 to 45 days1/147.1%0.91/531.9%0.17
On the all-weather2/287.1%0.984/924.3%0.35
In fields of 12-151/119.1%1.681/254.0%0.49
At this time of year (Q3)—1/156.7%0.53
At Wolverhampton0/80.0%0.02/326.2%0.55
In Class 6-7 company1/185.6%0.697/818.6%0.68
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 73 is below the ~74.0 the race demands
The rider
T. Kiely-Marshall · last 14 days: 0/7· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.84 (n24)· with this yard: A/E 1.4 (n11)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields8th of 11
-0.16 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 40.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 11
-0.00s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 3 of 6
Finish · closing speed6th of 11
100.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length9th of 11
7.17 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Mar 26 · 7.2f · Std — finished 8th vs 7th, 2.5L behind
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (-1.8L adj, 3 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs WATERMELON SUGAR (IRE) (read through DAYTONA LADY, ONE MORE DREAM, HAVANA SKY, BOMB SQUAD) ≈ +3.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs WHITE UMBRELLA (read through RUBY RED GOVE, PUNCHBOWL FLYER, HOW IMPRESSIVE, BOMB SQUAD) ≈ -2.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MASTER DANDY (IRE) (read through DAYTONA LADY, HAVANA SKY, PENELOPE VALENTINE, LUCKY MAN) ≈ +2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CANDY WARHOL (USA) (read through DAYTONA LADY, JESSE LUC, HAVANA SKY, DAPPERLING) ≈ -1.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Drops in class todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, hung left over 1f out, weakened”
#10WATERMELON SUGAR (IRE)MID
DRAW 4 · OR 60 · Joey Haynes / Chelsea Banham
MARKET 14.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−
50.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
10th on the figures, 24pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
50.0 · ranked #10 here · career best 74
Official mark (OR)
60 · last won off 60
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 28 tries · beats market expectation (1.32)
Days since last run
50
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races midfield-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.6% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Chelsea Banham · 278 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.3 on the exchange
Signature angle: over an unchanged trip
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)4/557.3%1.093/837.5%2.5
In fields of 12-153/339.1%1.781/714.3%2.31
At Wolverhampton0/600.0%0.04/1822.2%1.95
On the all-weather ✦17/16910.1%1.0411/4922.4%1.65
Over 5-6f trips ✦19/14613.0%1.2212/4129.3%1.63
In Class 6-7 company ✦16/14710.9%1.017/3122.6%1.35
Too few runners to read reliably
Back at their last winning mark (small sample)0/40.0%0.0—
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 74 at/around today's trip, clears the ~74.0 demand
The rider
Joey Haynes · last 14 days: 2/7· at Wolverhampton: A/E 0.76 (n201)· with this yard: A/E 1.13 (n344)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 11
+0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 11
+0.21s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 11
104.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length5th of 11
7.38 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
1 Jun 26Wolverhampton6fStd8thTrue41.1 +0.29101.1+0.30
Timed runs 2025-12-08 to 2026-06-01. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
7 Aug 25 · 6f · Slow — finished 10th vs 8th, 20L behind
MASSIMO BLUE · 1 meeting≈ 8.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly
18 Oct 25 · 6.1f · Slow — finished 10th vs 2nd, 7.9L behind
THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 3 rival(s) met (-10.3L adj, 4 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs BRAVE EMPIRE (IRE) (read through BLUE FORCE, BILL PLUMB, WODAO, AMERJEET) ≈ -5.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs NEVER DARK (read through TRAVEL AGENT, PHOENIX BEACH, LEVEL UP, JOJO RABBIT) ≈ -4.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs LANDLORDTOTHESTARS (IRE) (read through SECRET ROAD, MY MATE MIKE, BOMB SQUAD, ARNAZ) ≈ -4.5L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs CRYSTAL DAGGER (read through DAYTONA LADY, ONE MORE DREAM, HAVANA SKY, BOMB SQUAD) ≈ -3.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
AW-PROVEN — 4/24 on the all-weatherProven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayProven over the trip (28 tries, beats market expectation at 1.32)Historically underestimated by the marketSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance
LTO comment
“held up, closed up only late”
#11BLUE LANCEROHELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 7 · OR 61 · Faye McManoman / Derek Shaw
MARKET 100 · the market rates it a 1% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−
48FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
11th on the figures, 26pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
48 · ranked #11 here · career best 65
Official mark (OR)
61 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
23
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.0s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races held-up (one-paced)
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.86% (holds late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Derek Shaw · 381 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)0/420.0%0.00/1 · 0.0%
In Class 6-7 company17/2157.9%0.981/512.0%0.27
At Wolverhampton15/13810.9%1.351/342.9%0.35
On the all-weather ✦20/2877.0%0.932/673.0%0.38
Over 5-6f trips20/20010.0%1.212/513.9%0.42
Coming back after 15 to 45 days2/932.2%0.341/175.9%0.7
Too few runners to read reliably
In fields of 12-15 (small sample)0/440.0%0.00/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 65 is below the ~74.0 the race demands
The rider
Faye McManoman · last 14 days: 1/8· at Wolverhampton: A/E 1.07 (n42)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n12)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields11th of 11
-0.48 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph11th of 11
+0.39s
Slow away in 3 of 4 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed5th of 11
100.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 11
7.36 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
28 Jun 26Wolverhampton5fStd5thTrue39.8 -0.41102.6+0.41
29 Sep 25Southwell6fStd8thTrue38.2 -1.5399.6+0.54
16 May 25Newbury7fFirm7thSlow early40.8 +0.00100.8+0.40
3 May 25Doncaster7fGd/Frm3rdSlow early40.4 +0.02100.4+0.19
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-05-03 to 2026-06-28. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs CANDY WARHOL (USA) (read through SHALAA ASKER, STYLE KING, LEVEL UP) ≈ -5.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MASSIMO BLUE (read through STYLE KING, SHALAA ASKER) ≈ -3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Only 4 runs at this distanceLost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last timeCut 4lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining form